Are Markets Ready for Trump 2.0? What Will the Week Bring?
With just days left until Donald Trump’s inauguration as the 47th president, Wall Street’s major indices are at new lows. The prospect of no further Fed rate cuts is supporting the US dollar, and the situation has been fueled by Friday’s US data releases.
Are markets ready for Donald Trump to return to the White House?
When Donald Trump began his first term as president of the United States in 2017, he stated that the US dollar was “too strong,” which almost immediately set a symbolic peak on the dollar index. A significant theme of Trump’s first presidency was geopolitical tensions with Beijing, confirmed by the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods in 2017. In this respect, the situation in 2025 does not seem to be significantly different from 2017.
The dollar’s weakness in 2017 was partly due to the divergence of economic data. US data surprised on the downside, while developments in Europe and China were in line with expectations. The situation is completely different now, which means that market expectations of monetary easing in Europe and elsewhere remain at the same level, while similar moves by the Fed are becoming less likely.
At the same time, looking at the long-term deviation from the average, the US dollar is now much more overbought than it was in 2017. So is the probability of a bigger USD depreciation increasing? How will the new White House policy affect Wall Street?
We invite you to a webinar with the Chief Economist XTB Dr. Przemysław Kwiecień, in which he will discuss issues such as:
- Will the dollar continue to dominate?
- Will the Fed cut rates in 2025?
- The Problem for the New White House Administration
About the host
Dr Przemysław Kwiecień - Chief economist X-Trade Brokers. Doctor of Economics at the University of Warsaw, graduate of the University of Warsaw and London Metropolitan University (MSc). Holder of the prestigious CFA certificate. He has been working for XTB since 2007, previously he gained experience as an advisor to the Minister of Finance, Mirosław Gronicki, and an economist at Bank Millennium. At XTB, he manages the Analysis Department.
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