BLS returns to release key U.S. data

The reopening of the US government means a return to macroeconomic data releases. According to Trump administration officials, some of the overdue reports could be released in the coming week..

The release of the September jobs report next Thursday, nearly two months after its original deadline, marks a key turning point for assessing the state of the labor market and the future direction of the Federal Reserve. The government shutdown disrupted not only the release schedule but also the data collection methodology, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics is unable to collect information retroactively, meaning a potential loss of data for October.The unavailability of reliable macroeconomic indicators has left financial institutions in a state of "fog," forcing markets to rely on alternative sources of signals, which has perpetuated uncertainty about the trajectory of monetary policy and generated volatility in currency pairs and capital reallocation strategies.

NFP data only

The September Employment Situation Report will be published on Thursday, November 20, 2025 at 14:30 p.m., most likely containing only NFP data The unemployment rate is excluded due to difficulties in collecting some data. A day later, on Friday, November 21, real wage data will be released, which represents the difference between the CPI and average hourly earnings.

The chances of another rate cut in December have fallen dramatically from 92-95 percent a month ago to just about 50 percent, reflecting the deep polarization among members of the Federal Open Market Operations Committee. Although the heads of the Federal Reserve in New York and other districts They pointed to signs of a cooling labor market and inflationary pressure at 3 percent, a second group of committee members, including new appointee Stephen Miran, favored further easing. The lack of clear data on employment and commodity prices complicates the already difficult consensus that Jerome Powell will need to reach to avoid another dissenting voice in the historically divided institution.

Will the dollar return to growth?

The dollar index remains on the verge of a critical support level of 98,9-99,0 points, while resistance at 100,25-100,36 has repeatedly proven too strong to overcome. The scenario of pausing cuts or further cuts now depends directly on data that could resume the dollar's growth if the market shifts expectations towards a more modest number of cuts in the future.If the November employment report confirms the weakness of the labor market, the dollar could resume its decline toward the 96-97 levels.

The Polish zloty is generally performing relatively poorly at the start of the week. The pound is currently up 0,5% to PLN 4,7933, the Swiss franc is trading at PLN 4,5800, the euro is trading at PLN 4,2255, and the dollar is rebounding 0,2% to PLN 3,6420.

The most important events of the day are the core inflation data from Poland (14:00 p.m.) and the data CEP from Canada at 14:30 p.m.

Source: Mateusz Czyżkowski, XTB