Orange juice is the cheapest since 2022 – but not in a Polish store

Futures prices for Orange juice have fallen in recent weeks to their lowest level since September 2022. On November 7, a pound of concentrate cost $1,70 – today, the price is around $1,75. This represents a 14% drop in one month and a whopping 63% year-on-year drop. However, in Polish stores, consumers still cannot count on discounts, and in many places, a liter of juice costs over PLN 10.

Where did the record prices come from?

As recently as December 2024, juice prices reached a record high of $5,30 per pound (0,45 kg). The increase of over 300% between 2022 and 2024 was a direct result of unfavorable weather conditions, crop diseases, and crop failures in Brazil and the US. However, as harvest forecasts began to improve, the market rebounded sharply. The significantly improved forecast for Brazil, the world's largest juice producer, played a key role. It is estimated that this year's harvest could be around 20% higher than last year. Increased rainfall, the end of the El Niño phenomenon, and signs of stabilizing supply caused investors to withdraw from the market, deepening the price correction.

Consumers are turning away from orange juice

High prices and declining quality caused many consumers to simply give up drinking orange juice. In the US, sales fell by as much as 16 percent. This was due to the fact that not only were consumers paying more for the juice, but they also received a product with an inferior and bitter taste. This situation was blamed on poor harvests and tree diseases, which forced producers to use every available batch of fruit, without the ability to properly select the raw material. In Brazil, sugar levels in the fruit dropped, and the increased content of limonin, a natural chemical found in citrus fruits responsible for the bitter taste, made the juice more bitter. To mitigate these problems, producers began blending orange juice with other fruits, such as mangoes, tangerines, and pears, which are cheaper and sweeter. This allowed for an acceptable taste, but failed to offset the decline in sales.

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Changing consumer habits

Since its peak two decades ago, global orange juice consumption has fallen by 30 percent. In Western markets, the main reasons are concerns about high sugar content and the growing popularity of lower-calorie breakfast alternatives. At the same time, consumers have begun to abandon their habits, and even if prices fall, they may not return to their former morning juice ritual. Manufacturers are already looking for alternatives, introducing products with added protein or reduced sugar content in an attempt to stem the consumer flow.

Although prices on the futures market have fallen, nothing has changed in stores. This is because retailers are bound by long-term contracts signed during the price peak. In Poland, a liter of juice currently costs an average of 9,50 złoty, and in many smaller stores, it exceeds 10 złoty. This is more than double the price of juice three years ago, when it cost around 4,50 złoty.

The market remains full of risks

The orange juice market continues to struggle with numerous challenges: unstable weather, low supplies, harvest uncertainty, and citrus diseases (such as citrus greening disease). Although the first chemical treatments have emerged to combat the disease, it can take up to a dozen years for new trees to mature. Therefore, this factor will continue to negatively impact the market.

Lesson for investors: a highly volatile market

For investors, the current situation represents a market characterized by exceptionally high volatility. Price increases between 2022 and 2024 attracted speculators, further exacerbating the rally. Now, as harvest forecasts improve, speculative capital is flowing out of the market, further deepening the decline. Despite recent corrections, however, the situation cannot be considered stabilized. The market remains highly dependent on weather and biological factors, meaning investment risk remains high and may persist for a long time.

About the author

Pawel Majtkowski - analyst eToro on the Polish market, which shares its weekly commentary on the latest stock market information. Paweł is a recognized expert on financial markets with extensive experience as an analyst in financial institutions. He is also one of the most cited experts in the field of economy and financial markets in Poland. He graduated from law studies at the University of Warsaw. He is also the author of many publications in the field of investing, personal finance and economy.