Bitcoin price close to ATH, but altseason still missing

Bitcoin price is still close to its all-time highs, holding above $100. The price of BTC seems to be supported by the recent wave of easing of financial conditions in the US, although they are starting to correct slightly here (but not tightening dramatically). The potential weak USD could also be a positive factor, as well as expectations of interest rate cuts by Fed in September (74% chance).

In turn, bitcoin domination is still above 65%, which means it is close to the highest level since January 2021. As a result, the typical altseason is still missing, although the structure on the bitcoin dominance chart may once again give hope to altcoin holders.

This is a potential bullish wedge that has been forming since December 2024. Although BTC's dominance has been growing since then, the range of fluctuations has begun to narrow. If BTC's dominance were a typical instrument, the structure of the chart could indicate expectations of a breakout from this structure downwards. This still does not rule out the appearance of an altseason in 2025, although its course may be abrupt and may not apply to some tokens.

Will Trump's big bill help?

The Trump bill itself has little to do with the cryptocurrency market, unlike the bills regarding stablecoins, but within the bill Trump the debt limit will be raised by USD 5 trillion. As a result, a situation may arise where Scott Bessent, like Janet Yellen, will reach for funds from reverse repo, issuing treasury bills at the beginning, draining excess liquidity.

If this were to happen, the US financial market could be injected with nearly $200 billion in a relatively short period of time. This increase in liquidity could lead to a re-loosening of financial conditions and, once again, an increase in risk appetite, with the cryptocurrency market being a barometer. The next update from the Treasury Department will be in late July.