Bitcoin is once again waiting for interest rate cuts like never before.

Now Bitcoin price, like other cryptocurrencies, seems to be strongly dependent on the Fed's interest rate decisions, but also on the overall economic situation in the US — especially the labor market, which affects the long end of the yield curve.

The cryptocurrency market boom coincided with central banks, including the Fed, significantly increasing the money supply in response to lockdowns and the pandemic crisis. The increase in the monetary base through QE, zero interest rates, rampant lending, and government fiscal support created the so-called "everything bull market."

In recent years, central banks have begun to reduce the monetary base through QT, leading to a decline in reserves and the M0 money supply. However, in the US, the excess liquidity from the pandemic era – reaching USD 2,5 trillion – declined from the fall of 2022 until the summer of 2025. Although this was not a classic form of QE, it seemed to support the private repo market and ease financial conditions, from which the price Bitcoin is highly dependent.

Statistical studies show that over the past three years, easing financial conditions has had a positive impact on the BTC price in 95% of cases. Despite high interest rates, loan installments, and bond yields, financial conditions have been easing—a phenomenon that can be considered a phenomenon of recent decades. Typically, falling interest rates have loosened conditions, while rising interest rates have tightened them.

Today, however, excess liquidity has almost completely disappeared, so market attention is focused on interest rates and yields. From a simple statistical perspective, a decline in these rates could ease financial conditions again, which, once excess liquidity ends, appears to be a key channel for further potential growth in the cryptocurrency market. Since there will be no more money in the system, it must become cheaper. And cheaper money could once again stimulate markets—as a "new workhorse" for the bull market.

Interestingly, the statistical model based on Fed FCI-G index indicates that if financial conditions ease to levels last seen in 2011 or 2024, Bitcoin's price could rise to as much as $180. For such a scenario to materialize, a significant reduction in interest rates and bond yields in the US would be necessary.

Key factors will include data from the US labor market, which is experiencing a cooling down period, inflation data, and above all, the Fed decision scheduled for September 17, along with new macroeconomic projections.