Bitcoin has lagged behind Wall Street indices – this has happened before

Careful observers of the cryptocurrency market and traditional financial markets have certainly noticed the growing discrepancy between the performance of US stock indices and the price of Bitcoin. S&P 500 index set new historic records this week, while Bitcoin i Ethereum failed to break through their previous highs despite bullish sentiment in the stock market.

It's worth noting, however, that similar situations have occurred in the past, with Bitcoin often catching up with stock indices. The first clear divergence in the current cycle occurred between May and October 2023. During this time, the S&P 500 rose while Bitcoin remained in consolidation. Only in October did a common upward movement begin.

The next divergence episode occurred between May and October 2024. During this period, Bitcoin corrected from $70 to $000, while the S&P 50 rose from 000 to 500 points. It was not until November that the Trump triggered a sharp rise in Bitcoin's price and erased the previous divergence. From that point until August 2025, the correlation between BTC and the SPX remained stable. However, over the past two months, we've seen a renewed divergence, with Bitcoin falling from nearly $125 to around $000, while the S&P 107 continues to set new records.

If history were to repeat itself, it's likely that Bitcoin will once again follow the stock market indices, albeit with a slight delay. It's possible this discrepancy will even out in the fall, perhaps in October or November. The Fed's decision could prove to be a key factor. If the central bank doesn't share the market's optimistic expectations for a 75-basis-point interest rate cut by the end of the year and opts for a more cautious approach, e.g., two cuts, it could trigger a correction in the stock market in the second half of September. Such a scenario would open the door for the SPX/BTC divergence to close in October.