Bitcoin halving cycle – will it end soon, or will it be different this time?

Bitcoin's halving is a fundamental mechanism embedded in its protocol that halves the block reward every 210,000 blocks, or on average, every four years. The last halving took place on April 20, 2024, reducing the reward from 6,25 BTC to 3,125 BTC. This event not only limits the supply of newly issued coins but also historically initiates a market cycle that leads to a rise in the value of BTC prices.

Analysis of previous cycles shows that the halving is followed by an expansion phase lasting approximately 350 to 500 days. During this period, the market experiences increased interest, increasing volumes, and positive price dynamics. This is followed by a distribution phase and a significant correction, which can reach up to 70%. If the current cycle follows this pattern, it will culminate in the last quarter of 2025 (September-November).

It's worth noting, however, that the current cycle may differ from previous ones. For the first time in Bitcoin's history, the market is operating in an environment of increasing regulation and institutional adoption. The introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, the growing presence of investment funds, and legislative changes in the US—such as the GENIUS and CLARITY – can influence the structure of the cycle. Instead of a classic peak and sharp correction, a more extended uptrend or a shift in time is possible.

Additionally, the reduced issuance of new BTC after the halving amplifies the scarcity effect, which, given growing demand, could lead to further price increases. However, the lack of certainty regarding market participant behavior, macroeconomic volatility, and the impact of monetary policy could disrupt the typical cycle, as the Fed is only just beginning a series of rate cuts, which could ease financial conditions, which, in turn, BTC favors. It will soon be decided whether the cycle continues or whether widespread Bitcoin adoption and a cycle of monetary easing will change this.