The ruble continues to gain, and the zloty along with it. The EUR/PLN rate falls to 4,13

Russian assets have been the best performers in the world this year, led by the ruble, which has gained more than 20% against the euro. Comparing not so much the scale of the exchange rate change EUR / PLN and EUR/RUB, as to the way the rates behave in relation to each other, we will notice that they move in a very similar way. In other words, capital is flowing to Russia with great momentum, and Poland is "hooked" by this flow.

This may be related to the fact that the market has imagined that politicians will eventually lift at least some of the sanctions from Russia, which is tantamount to opening the Russian economy to the world, as if the lockdown was lifted after the epidemic. Then, of course, all discounted Russian assets must return to pre-sanction levels, along with the rebuilding of businesses in Russia.

Poland, as a country that had trade relations with Russia, can improve its trade balance, which may have a positive contribution to Our country's GDP, because in this narrative we will import cheaper gas or oil than now. Will it be so? We do not know, politicians in Brussels know, and they can be lobbied to lift some of the sanctions, just as they have been lobbying in the US since December to lift sanctions on Russian LNG.

If this is what the market has imagined, and this is indicated by the złoty exchange rate and the behavior of European energy companies on the stock exchange since December, following Novatek, then we should follow the politicians' moves. It will depend on them whether the market is right, or whether the złoty has already discounted the improvement in the balance sheet and significant GDP growth in the second half of 2025.

If, however, sanctions remain in force, a large part of what the złoty has now gained will probably be returned, because this will automatically worsen the prospects for our country's GDP and trade balance.

However, this cannot be predicted at this point, as we need to know what politicians have decided, so perhaps looking at the charts will provide more information.