Falling cocoa prices brought sweet relief to chocolate makers' stocks ahead of Halloween

Just before Halloween, chocolate makers could look forward to a respite. According to the platform's latest analysis eToroAfter years of record production costs, cocoa prices have fallen by 51% this year. Thanks to this reduction, the "candy basket" of Lindt, Hershey, Mondelez and Nestlé has increased by 14% since the beginning of the year, reaching its best result since 2021.

In a nutshell:

• Cocoa prices After reaching a record high this year, prices fell 51%, while chocolate makers saw a 14% increase thanks to improved margins.
• Data from the last five years show that the boom in the cocoa market had a negative impact on the shares of confectionery producers, which are now likely to recover thanks to the decline in cocoa prices.
• eToro's analysis indicates the possibility of a periodic rebound in chocolate producers' share prices.

The data points to a more complex situation

During the year shares of confectionery producers increased by 2%, showing that last year's record-high cocoa costs continue to impact results. Although the "confectionery basket" saw a moderate increase of 2% over three years, it rose 18% over five years, demonstrating the effectiveness of chocolate makers in maintaining margins during one of the most volatile commodity price cycles in decades. Data from the British organization Which?, which show that in the period from 2025 to August¹ Chocolate prices increased by 14,6 percent.

This stability looks even more striking compared to increase in cocoa prices by 153% since 2020, driven by repeated crop failures and export disruptions in West Africa. The fact that chocolate stocks have largely held their ground despite this turmoil underscores both the sector's resilience and consumers' willingness to continue buying, even as prices soar.

Sam North, Market Analyst at eToro said:

Chocolate makers are finally getting a breather thanks to falling cocoa prices. Even after years of extreme cost pressure, the sector fared much better than expected. Data shows that people may cut back on spending on large luxury items, but rarely forgo smaller ones—a fact that has helped keep chocolate makers' stocks remarkably stable.

Lindt remains the leader, growing 30% this year, 22% over one year, 35% over three years and 57% over five years. Hershey is up 10% year to date, 0% over one year and 27% over five years, while Mondelez (+5% year to date; +10% over five years) and Nestlé (+12% year to date; -22% over five years) have seen more volatile results.

Sam North added:

This is an industry that has shown remarkable resilience. Even when cocoa prices doubled, customers didn't stop buying; they simply adapted. The question now is whether this resilience will last if sales remain low through Halloween and the holiday season.

 Table showing the comparison of results: sweets vs. cocoa

Stock price data as of market close on October 21, 2025. Index and commodity performance calculated in US dollars. Data sourced from Refinitiv and Business Insider. Past performance is not a guide to future results.