Trump-Putin ceasefire talk

US President Donald Trump has announced talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin to persuade him to accept a 30-day ceasefire in the war with Ukraine. Kiev has already agreed to that condition, but it is uncertain whether Moscow will follow suit.

Ukraine's readiness for a ceasefire

According to Trump, many elements of the agreement have already been negotiated, but there are still issues that require further discussion. Meanwhile, the number of casualties among soldiers on both sides is reaching up to 2 per week, which - according to the US president - forces the urgent need for a ceasefire. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed Ukraine's readiness to implement the ceasefire plan, emphasizing that the Kremlin's decision is now crucial.

In the longer term, a comprehensive peace deal is being considered, which could include territorial concessions by Ukraine and resolving the issue of control over the nuclear power plant. President Volodymyr Zelensky, however, remains adamant about his country's sovereignty, emphasizing the need for Russia's full withdrawal from the occupied territories.. Putin, in turn, demands that Ukraine abandon its plans to join NATO, ease Western sanctions and call presidential elections.

Strained relations with allies

Although Trump has repeatedly pledged to end the war in 24 hours, negotiations could prove difficult. Experts warn against the tactic of apparent concessions by Putin, who may try to obtain further concessions from Kiev. Additionally, Trump's relations with some US allies are strained – the president is tightening ties with Moscow while adopting a more confrontational stance towards Washington's traditional partners.

The dispute between Trump and Zelensky is also significant. The leaders' last meeting at the White House was stormy, with Trump and Vice President JD Vance reportedly expressing dissatisfaction with what they saw as the Ukrainian president's insufficient gratitude for American military aid.

Trump and Putin are set to speak this afternoon, although the exact time has not been announced. A possible ceasefire agreement could be groundbreaking, but its success depends on Moscow's willingness to make concessions and Ukraine's determination to defend its sovereignty.

Meanwhile, WTI crude oil gained 1.64% to $68.71 a barrel. USD/JPY gained 0.38% to 149.78.

Source: Krzysztof Kamiński, OANDA TMS Brokers