Trump threatens new tariffs, Glapiński still a strong “hawk”

Trump directs another threat towards Europe. More data from the US (PPI) did not improve the mood on Wall Street in any way, which resulted in a clear sell-off of the main stock market indices. The dollar managed to gain slightly against the euro. The złoty gained slightly after Adam Glapiński's "hawkish" press conference.

200% tariffs are great news

Thursday brought new uncertainties on tariffs. President Trump Threatens to Impose 200 Percent Tariff on European Wine, Champagne, and Other Alcoholic Beverages. He also added that he would not lift tariffs on steel and aluminum material, which came into effect this week. It also has no intention of abandoning its broad plans for mutual tariffs, which are to come into effect on April 2. Yields on U.S. government bonds fell and the dollar managed to strengthen slightly. The Nasdaq Composite has already lost 14 percent from its all-time high. The SP500 has lost more than 10 percent, while the Dow Jones has fallen 9 percent from its all-time high. Uncertainty over tariffs and trade policy in recent weeks has further deepened concerns about economic growth.

Trump wrote in his post on Truth Socila that the European Union is one of the most hostile and exploitative tax and customs entities in the world, which was created solely to exploit the United States. This is how he assesses the 50% tariff imposed by Europe on American whiskey. He considered that the 200% tariff on alcohol from the Old Continent is great news for the American market for these products.

In turn, Vladimir Putin said he wanted to discuss the proposal for a ceasefire in Ukraine with the US President. However, he did not support a 30-day ceasefire and warned that the cessation of the war should lead to a long-term solution to the conflict.. Trump responded that until we see what the final result will be, these declarations of the Russian president mean nothing. He added that if the aggressor does not sign a ceasefire, it will be a very disappointing moment for the whole world.

High inflation rules out cuts

On the domestic stage, yesterday's key event was the press conference of Adam Glapiński - the president NBP. His statements sounded very "hawkish". He emphasized that there is currently no basis for cutting interest rates due to high inflation. He indicated that forecasts assume that a return to the target will not occur until 2027. Such comments seem to rule out the possibility of monetary policy easing before July or September, although the market still expects cuts in the third quarter of this year.. Inflation forecasts for 2025 were slightly revised downwards by 0,5 percentage points, while those for 2026 were raised by 0,8 percentage points.

Today, the key data from Poland will be the CPI for February. The consensus indicates that the level of 5,3% y/y will be maintained, similarly to January. However, let us remember that the data for February will be based on the new weights of the consumer basket. The EUR/PLN exchange rate reacted precisely to the technical resistance around 4,2030. This level is a solid barrier for now, which limits further depreciation of the złoty.

Source: OANDA TMS Brokers