China under pressure from CPI data. Glapiński on inflation paths

The Chinese economy is returning to the forefront of investors' attention. Worse macro data and increasingly eager promises regarding the implementation of broad stimulus solutions create a dissonance in which the market side of demand and supply have difficulty finding their way.

In Poland, however, investors' attention turns to President Glapiński's conference, the tone of which may determine... further path of interest rates in Poland.

sama CPI inflation Chin turned out in January lower than expected, thus raising concerns about deflation and a deepening economic downturn. The CPI index decreased y/y -0,8% compared to -0,5% of forecasts and -0,3% in December (in m/m terms it increased by 0,3% compared to 0,1% previously). Core CPI inflation increased by 0,4% compared to 0,6% in the previous reading; food prices decreased by 5,9% y/y. In reaction to these data, the euphoria caused by recent rumors of support for the local stock market has been largely erased.

Glapiński on possible inflation paths

In Poland, the number one topic of today's session will be the conference after the MPC decision. At this point, the market does not see much chance for MPC cuts in the next 3 months, and within 6 months the expectations have been reduced to less than two moves of 25 basis points. Despite low inflation readings, there is a risk of its dynamic rebound in the second part of 2024 limits the chance of sudden reductions. All Glapiński's comments regarding the inflation path, fiscal and political threats and interest rates themselves will be particularly analyzed by the market today.

The beginning of Thursday's session on European markets is relatively calm. Individual stock indices record moderate declines, a EUR / USD pair consolidates in the 1.0770 zone. Especially on the broad market The Swiss franc is doing well today. The Japanese yen is experiencing greater declines in particular. The Polish zloty is recording mixed levels this morning. We will currently pay PLN 4,0400 for the dollar, PLN 4,3440 for the euro, PLN 4,6150 for the franc, and PLN 5,0900 for the pound.

Source: Mateusz Czyżkowski, XTB