Bitcoin's price skyrocketed in October. What could be the outlook for November?

October on the bitcoin market can be considered very successful. Bitcoin price increased by 28% last month, which is the best result since the first month of this year, when the bitcoin price increased by almost 40% in January. Statistically, October was a very good month for... BTC, because historically, out of 11 attempts from the period 2013-2023, only in 2018 and 2014 did the bitcoin price drop in October.

Seasonality for November, it seems not be so obvious anymore. Historically, out of 10 periods in November, bitcoin was more expensive for 6 months and cheaper for 4 months. In turn, in December, bitcoin became cheaper for 6 months and rose in price for 4 months. Therefore, it is difficult to find a seasonal pattern here, and it looks more like a literal coin toss.

From the technical analysis side BTC / USD exchange rate has reached a potential resistance zone, which may extend between the level of USD 37000-39000. These levels, especially after such a rally, may be difficult to exceed without an additional driving force for this market. Meanwhile the defeated July peak may provide support, i.e. around USD 32100.

In the context of the increase in the price of bitcoin, we cannot forget about the upcoming halving this spring. Currently estimated date halving it is April 18, 2024 and again statistically, just over 20 weeks before this event, bitcoin was soaring. Only once was it different, when the market collapsed a few weeks before the halving due to Covid. Excluding this one-off factor, the bitcoin price may be in consolidation at most, but without any sudden declines (if this relationship were to repeat).