The worst day for the zloty since October 2023. The euro rate is up

A series of macroeconomic data from the United States, which appeared on Friday and Monday, effectively raised the yields of American treasury bonds, which in the case of 10-year securities returned with a bang to the level of 4%. Thus, the US dollar strengthened on global markets, and the Polish zloty, which has been following US yields for months, also depreciated.

Friday's data showed a strong labor market in the US, and yesterday's data showed an increase in the price sub-index within the ISM index for services to 64 points. This is the highest value since February 2023, which has raised concerns about the durability of inflation in the US and the need to keep interest rates at higher levels for a longer period of time. This, in turn, could support the USD and contribute to an increase in the correction on the Polish zloty. However, it should be remembered that disruptions in maritime transport in the Red Sea may be responsible for the increase in the price index.

The euro rate is up by the most since October

Yesterday, the euro rose to almost PLN 4,34, increasing by 0,64% during the day. This means the largest daily increase in the rate since October 18, 2023, when the euro rate increased against the zloty by 0,83%. Nevertheless, it seems that there may be significant resistance levels in the area of ​​PLN 4,35 to PLN 4,38 ahead of the EUR/PLN quotations. In turn, support may remain around PLN 4,30-4,29.

The largest depreciation of the Polish zloty against the USD since January 16

On February 5, the zloty lost 1,1% against the dollar, returning to the level of PLN 4 and at one point reaching the highest rate since January 23. The last time we saw such a depreciation of the zloty against the dollar was on January 16. Then PLN lost 1,26%. From the point of view of the chart, the quotations are once again testing the potential resistance in the area of ​​PLN 4,06-4,07. It seems that only its permanent defeat can open the way towards 4,14. The level of support for the zloty may remain around PLN 3,95.

What next with interest rates in Poland?

We will find out the decision this week RPP on interest rates. The market consensus assumes no changes in rates and leaving the main rate at 5,75%. According to the market, there is a chance for a possible one cut of 0,25 percentage points within six months, and larger rate cuts, of the order of 1 percentage point, can only be expected next year, according to FRA rates quotations. Therefore, if we compare the lack of changes in rates in Poland and the prediction of a further decline in inflation until March, in theory this is a good result for the zloty exchange rate, which could still benefit from it and strengthen at that time, breaking the recent lows.