Weakness of long-term treasury bonds, cyclical highs on the WSE

Declining since July 31 this year. This morning, the WIG-20 slightly breached its minimum level on May 31 this year. The dimensions of the WIG-20 lowered on September 6 this year. A 3-month head and shoulders formation is suggested by a level slightly lower than 1800 points. as a target for an ongoing move that could be achieved during a "traditional" seasonal stock price trough.

Yesterday's main American stock market indices reached their 3-month lows, but ended the day with minor changes (S&P 500 +0,02%, DJIA -0,2 percent, Nasdaq 100 +0,24 percent). Price declines prevailed today on the stock markets of Asia and Oceania (Nikkei -1,54%, All Ordinaries -0,1%). In Europe, the German DAX was at its lowest level in six months today, and the French CAC 40 tried to stay above the level of its six-month low reached on Tuesday.

Cyclical highs on the WSE

Today, the share prices of Cyfrowy Polsat (the lowest since 2012) and Pepco (the lowest in the history of quotations dating back to 2021) reached their new cyclical highs on the WSE. Among the shares included in mWIG 40 and sWIG 80, the share prices of Selvita, Grodno and Captor Therapeutics reached new cyclical lows.

Traditionally, the topic of the US government's debt limit has returned. The new fiscal year starts in the US on October 1 this year. and until then Congress must agree to a new level of financing of government activities, if the latter's activities are not to be severely restricted. 10-year Treasury yields in many developed countries continue to set new cyclical highs. This morning this was the case with 10-year-olds in Austria, Belgium, Germany, Finland, France and Canada. Yesterday, we also saw a similar situation with the yield of 10-year bonds issued by the governments of the USA, France, Spain, Australia and New Zealand. The yield on the Polish government's 10-year bond (5,815%) is oscillating around its 2,5-month maximum.

Declining since mid-July this year. EUR / USD exchange rate reached the level of USD 1,05 yesterday (1,05124 approx. 9:30). This is the lowest level of the exchange rate of this currency pair since January this year. September 5 this year The EUR/USD rate has left the slightly rising consolidation zone that started in December last year. The size of this consolidation may suggest that the current discount will achieve its short-term goal in the second half of October just below the $1,03 level. The approach of the plant that has been growing since January this year. the exchange rate of the American dollar against the Japanese yen to the level of 150 JPY (149,301 today at approximately 9:30), which was reached in October last year. provoked the Japanese central bank to intervene to defend the Japanese currency, it is starting to provoke speculation that we may soon see a repeat of this scenario.

Weakness of the Polish currency

The Polish zloty was yesterday the weakest against the US dollar in half a year (today approx. 9:30 -0,08%). The EUR/PLN exchange rate was stable this morning (-0,04%).

Courses Bitcoin against the US dollar in August and September this year. fell to the key support level determined around USD 25000 by its maximums from August last year. and February this year Until the BTC/USD rate breaks down this support, it can be assumed that the medium-term target for the price of this instrument is the result of the level reached in March this year. 9-month "head and shoulders" formation around the level of USD 40000.

The price of American crude oil contracts (WTI, West Texas Intermediate) reached levels today their local peaks from October and November last year., and even slightly exceeded them, reaching its highest level since the end of August 2022. The market may be concerned that US strategic oil reserves have recently fallen to their lowest level in 40 years. The U.S. government has been using these reserves to lower the price of oil since the beginning of Russia's aggression against Ukraine. Price of contracts for gold yesterday fell to its lowest level in half a year, and this morning it rebounded slightly (+0,13% around 9:50). Prices of other metals (silver, platinum, palladium, copper) are still above their August lows.

Source: Łukasz Zembik, OANDA TMS Brokers