Statistically, an interesting period lies ahead: bitcoin, oil, bonds, stock market

Last autumn, particular attention was drawn to the occurrence of statistical phenomena on financial markets. We are talking here especially about the context of the return on the American stock and bond markets at the turn of October and November, which is a model for the statistical historical behavior of these asset classes. The historical behavior of crude oil prices was also important for the quotations Bitcoin. So let's take a look at what this may bring in the near future in terms of considerations on the historical behavior of prices of individual asset classes.

S & P 500

Over the last 20 years, the statistical peak for the main American index fell on February 16, and the correction lasted until March 9, with a subsequent rebound by the end of April. However, in the sample of this period examined, the most important factor is the decline in 2020, and its scale distorts the entire 20-year average. However, 2022 and 2023 were also part of this downward trend with the banking crisis from a year ago. However, in 20 years, declines occurred 11 times, and the market rose 9 times during this period. Therefore, although the scale of the average decline is clear, statistically we are closer to flipping a coin as to whether the correction at this time will also occur in 2024 or not. Meanwhile, growth statistics look better in the period from the end of the first week of March to the end of April. Out of the last 20 years, there have been 16 years of growth, and only 4 of them saw declines. On average, the market grew by about 7% during this time.

TLT – ETF for long-term US bonds

We are currently seeing the value of US bonds decline as their yields rise, following the significant price rally that took place in November and December. The currently observed correction, if it were to end like the statistical correction of the last 20 years, could bottom out around February 21. Then from this date until the beginning of April TLT price it increased 14 out of 20 times and decreased only 6 times. During this period, statistically, a further strong increase in US bond yields seems unlikely.

Petroleum

Prices oil appear to be moving in seasonal patterns, with the current early February low matching the 5-year average. If the price continues to respect seasonality, a local turning point in the oil market may occur around March 4. The correction, in turn, may be relatively short until March 14-18, so that the next statistical upward movement can begin and last until the end of June.

Bitcoin

bitcoin rate it turned back on January 23, which coincided with the statistical low as a long-term average. However, the statistical peak is coming soon, around February 19. In fact, between February 20 and 25, out of 10 attempts, 9 actually ended in losses. If this were to be the case this time, and the correction were to take on the same character as years ago, it may last until around March 14. Then, 9 out of 10 times, the price of Bitcoin rose from March 14 to April 28, creating another statistical upward momentum.

What will be the seasonality and statistics this year? We will find out soon, because the February-March period was a period of corrections on many markets.