High inflation will stay with us for a long time

September lecture CPI inflation in Poland, he negatively surprised even the most pessimistic analysts. According to the preliminary calculations of the Central Statistical Office, the consumer price index increased last month by 17,2% compared to the previous year. According to Professor Łukasz Hardt, an economist who used to sit on the Monetary Policy Council and one of the speakers XTB Investing Masterclass conference - high inflation will stay with us for longer. 

The IMF forecasts 14% inflation in Poland in 2023.

The surveyed analysts assumed that the increase in inflation in September would not exceed 17%, and the market consensus was 16,5%. The September reading, however, turned out to be the highest since February 1997, and there are opinions among experts that this situation will also continue next year. According to the report published in October World Economic Outlook by Of the International Monetary Fund, the average annual consumer inflation in Poland is expected to amount to 13,813% this year. In 2023, this value is expected to increase to 14,292% - argue analysts. 

The IMF also shares the opinion prof. Luke Hardt, economist, president of the Polish Economic Society, who will appear during the XNUMXth edition of the free XTB Investing Masterclass conference in one of the debates.

- High inflation will stay with us for a long time - the former member of the Monetary Policy Council comments on the current situation. When will the inflation level in Poland start to decline? - It seems that price growth will start to decline in 2023 and may return to single-digit values ​​at the end of next year, it will still be above the NBP's inflation target Hardt says. 

Inflation in Poland the highest in Europe? 

The decline in the purchasing power of the domestic currency is not only the Polish problem. This week we had the opportunity to follow inflation data from the Czech Republic and Hungary, among others. Consumer inflation in Poland's southern neighbor amounted to 18% y / y, while in Hungary it was at the level of 20,1% compared to the previous year. According to the IMF forecasts, while the dynamics of price growth in these countries may be higher than on the Vistula by the end of the year, in 2023 Poland is to become the European leader in the decline in the value of money. What are the reasons for the current situation? 

Inflation in Poland has various causes. On the one hand, these are rising energy commodity prices (the result of Russia's aggression against Ukraine), but on the other, also strong demand pressure. It is important that inflation expectations are also high, and - as we know from the available surveys, it is inflation expectations that largely determine the level of current inflation. Moreover, the weakening of the zloty exchange rate is also pro-inflationary - comments Łukasz Hardt. 

Take part in the XTB Investing Masterclass

What's next with the valuation of the Polish zloty? Or interest rate hikes NBP will be continued? What will the Polish economy look like in the face of the global slowdown? The invited experts will try to find answers to these and other questions Of the XNUMXth edition of XTB Investing Masterclass. The participants of the free online conference will receive lectures with the participation of recognized practitioners of financial markets, as well as a number of expert debates. 

Among the invited guests there will be, among others:

• prof. Luke Hardt - vice-president of the Polish Economic Society, member of the Monetary Policy Council in 2016-2022,
• Dr. Mateusz Szczurek - former Minister of Finance, economist of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development,
• Dr. Przemysław Kwiecień - Chief economist of XTB, holder of the prestigious CFA certificate, licensed Investment Advisor,
• Rafał Glinicki - Trader, an expert in the field of Volume Spread Analysis methodology and CEO of Black Wolf Corporation,
• Mieczysław Siudek - former broker, dealer and fund manager at the Investment Fund Company. 

The 26th edition of the XTB Investing Masterclass - the largest free online conference for investors will take place on Wednesday, October XNUMX. The agenda with a full list of speakers can be found at event website. The virtual form of XTB Investing Masterclass allows you to participate from anywhere in the world, so it is worth registering today.

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