Has the zloty weakened for longer? Poor streak in PLN

In the last week, the markets lived mainly at central bank meetings. Trade uncertainties related to the US-China conflict have gone to the background, which allowed a moment of breath. Among numerous conferences, speeches and meetings of the most important financial institutions in the world, some currencies had a chance to strengthen mainly against the dollar. However, it cannot be said about the zloty, which depreciation is at its best and it is difficult to wait for its end for now. During only the last Friday session the rate moved by 0,93%.

CJEU regarding Frankowicz

The most-awaited date, significant from the point of view of the currency and banking market, will be the CJEU meeting on the Frankivsk case. It is scheduled for October 3 this year. The vast majority of analysts are in favor of a positive decision (from the point of view of people who took out a loan in francs). Why such speculation? They mainly result from a non-binding ruling by the Advocate General of the Court of Justice, who stated that Polish courts could not maintain unfair terms on foreign currency loan agreements. There is therefore a good chance that a similar opinion will be followed by the CJEU. There are already the first speculations regarding the triggering of the crisis in the banking sector and its destabilization, as long as the ruling will be favorable to the Frankivtsi. Institutions granting such a loan at one time will have to take into account the great costs, which are gently estimated at PLN 60 billion. Black clouds have gathered over the banking sector. This was evident during the last WSE listings, where these institutions recorded declines in several sessions.

CHF / PLN chart, H4 interval. Source: xNUMX XTB xStation

What are the current CHF / PLN prices? It's not too bad. On Friday, the pound to the zloty soared by almost 1,18%. From a technical point of view, they broke through significant resistance at the 3.9940 level. For now, due to the closing of quotations for the weekend, we have not seen the test of the last demand movement, which should be largely sooner or later next week.

The dollar is still strong

In the last week Federal Reserve The United States did not surprise investors. In line with market expectations, interest rates have been reduced. He followed FED that way Bank of England, Japan and Switzerland. None of these decisions triggered major moves on the stock exchanges, and slight adjustments were used by buyers, which contributed to slight increases in the next session. It can be said that the dollar is stable in the light of this week, but without "fireworks". The policy is more neutral than aggressively building its appreciation against key currencies.

Chart USD / PLN, D1 interval. Source: xNUMX XTB xStation

Let's look at the dollar against the zloty. The visible and strong depreciation of the Polish currency has been at its best since the end of June this year. Quotes at a critical point reached almost PLN 4. At present, the 3.9170 point is a significant level of support. We bounced intensively from him in the last session.

It is hard to see a reverse situation on USD / PLN. The trend and sentiment on this pair is currently clearly upward, and the uncertain situation in Poland will be favorable for the dollar.

Pound versus zloty

Not so long ago, the pound was one of the weakest European currencies, due to numerous speculations related to Brexitem. The uncertainties associated with this became more apparent in the quotations GBP / USD, which once recorded two large downward series. His exchange rate was a bit better in pairs with currencies, which were as bad as he did with American money.

GBP / PLN chart, D1 interval. Source: xNUMX XTB xStation

The zloty practically to 12.08 this year belonged to those currencies that were effectively strengthening against the pound. The situation in mid-August changed radically and the upward trend is practically ongoing (virtually uninterrupted by a larger correction). We are currently in a very interesting (from the point of technical analysis) trading point. From January to mid-May, the 4,9442 level was an effective support strengthening the zloty against the British currency. The price will definitely stay longer in this area. The last growth candle was depleted by about ⅓ of the last demand movement, creating a longer wick in the support area. Of course, I do not see it as a signal for a change in trend, but rather as a suggestion that this place may stop trading for longer.