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The zloty is losing after the attack on the nuclear power plant in Ukraine
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The zloty is losing after the attack on the nuclear power plant in Ukraine

created Daniel Kostecki4 March 2022

Financial markets are responding with a particular increase in risk aversion following the attack by Russian soldiers on the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. As a result, the zloty depreciates enormously. After currency interventions conducted by National Bank of Poland this week there is no trace left. The euro costs this morning 4,84 PLN and may approach the level established during the great financial crisis - PLN 4,93. The dollar, in turn, costs money 4,39 PLN, PLN 5,86 should be paid for pounds, which is the highest level since the end of 2015.

The escalation of the Russian attack on Ukraine may put a lot of pressure on the NBP, which in turn could further raise interest rates to try to stop further depreciation of the zloty.

Investors are clinging to the dollar

The dollar index remained on Friday at the highest level for 20 months, above 97,8 points, which may cause the rate to drop EUR / USD to 1,10. Investors may have looked for security in the US currency in times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty. Today's US labor market report may also affect the USD performance. Estimates say that 400 were added in February. jobs, and the annual increase in salaries reached 5,8%.

This will be the last employment report ahead of the next Federal Reserve meeting where the interest rate cycle is expected to begin. Jerome PowellFed chairman is leaning towards a 25bp hike in March while leaving the door open to more aggressive action in the future if inflation persists.

Hope in oil from Iran?

Crude oil may have stopped its price rally for a while today due to a possible deal between the US and Iran. The release of about 1 million barrels of oil a day from Iran could help at least weaken the upward trend in the oil market as Western countries consider cutting off their raw material supplies from Russia.

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About the Author
Daniel Kostecki
Chief Analyst of CMC Markets Polska. Privately on the capital market since 2007, and on the Forex market since 2010.
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