The Fed waits for inflation. What will the week bring?

Although the end of the year is getting closer, the calendar of macroeconomic publications still surprises with its content. Last week we got to know the latest producer inflation calculations for November and the decision on the level interest rates MPC.

This week, investors are waiting for monetary decisions three major central banks - the Fed, EBC and BoE. In all cases, an increase of 50 bps is expected, but the most attention is paid to the decision of the Federal Reserve. According to analysts, this will depend on Tuesday's release of the CPI report for November. The further path of the interest rate level is to depend on it.

What about the market?

Market expectations point to a reading of 7,3% y/y. Some analysts expect a deeper drop in inflation - even to 6,8% - which is to be responsible for lower oil prices, as well as declines in price subindices in PMI indices. Before publication NFP and ISM, the market priced the futures rate at 4,8% and jumped above 5% only for a moment.

Thus, the market does not believe Jerome Powell's words that interest rates may rise above 5%. In other words, disinflation is now heavily priced. What next for the main stock indices and currencies such as USD, EUR or PLN?

We invite you to a meeting with the Chief Economist XTB Dr. Przemysław Kwiecień, in which he will focus on the key topic of this week - the Fed is waiting for inflation.

In today's video:

• Fed decision dependent on inflation level?
• Rental prices give hope
• Far from unanimous at the Bank of England

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In addition, due to the very dynamic situation in the world, additional ones will be made available raports Video on the impact of war, pandemic and economic crisis on the global economy.

About the host

Dr Przemysław Kwiecień - Chief economist X-Trade Brokers. Doctor of Economics at the University of Warsaw, graduate of the University of Warsaw and London Metropolitan University (MSc). Holder of the prestigious CFA certificate. He has been working for XTB since 2007, previously he gained experience as an advisor to the Minister of Finance, Mirosław Gronicki, and an economist at Bank Millennium. At XTB, he manages the Analysis Department.

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