The price collapse on the natural gas market continues

Yesterday's records were set by the main American indices - S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, the highest in history, DJIA it set such a record a week ago - they probably had some influence on the relatively good economic situation prevailing on Asian stock markets today. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0,09 percent today. closing at 36897,42 points. and being closer to the level of its historical record from December 1989 (38957 points). The Philippine PSEi was also at its highest level in a year (+0,29%).

The stock market in Europe attracted attention this morning historical maximum of the Dutch AEX (+0,26%), the highest level of the German TecDAX in 2 years (+0,61%) and the highest level of the Turkish XU100 in history.

The bullish attitude prevails

Among individual investors in the US, there was still a significant advantage of "bulls" (optimists about share prices) over "bears" (pessimists who believe that share prices will fall). In this week's AAII poll, 49 percent were bullish. (a week earlier 49,1%; the highest since December 20 last year), and "bearish" 22,6%. (the lowest since December 20 last year; a week ago 24,4%).

There was also optimism among Polish individual investors. In the weekly survey of the Association of Individual Investors, "bulls" (expecting WIG growth in the next 6 months) had 47,6 points. percent, and "bearish" 35,2 percent).

Friday's quotations on the WSE started with slight declines (WIG -0,22 percent, WIG-20 -0,55 percent, mWIG-40 -0,37 percent). sWIG-80, which recently reached its highest level in history, today at approx. 9:30 was gaining 0,19 percent.

Attention could be drawn to the highest level of WIG-Media in 2 years achieved this morning.

Will gas prices drop to levels from the 90s?

The market price collapse continued natural gas. The price of gas contracts listed on NYMEX fell today at approximately 9:00 by 4,8 percent reaching its new low since 2020. Sizes of the peak formation formed since July 2021 and lowered in January 2023 (between approx. USD 3,7 and approx. USD 10) suggest a medium-term decline in the price of these contracts to around USD 1,37. If this happened, the gas price on NYMEX would fall below its June 2020 minimum and would be at its lowest level since the 90s.

The world's largest percentages of natural gas are the USA (32,9 MMcf), Russia (22,7 MMcf), Iran (9,1 MMcf) and Canada (6,7 MMcf).

The world's largest exporters of natural gas in 2022 were the USA (187 billion cubic meters), Russia (165,5), Qatar (134,2), Norway (120,5), Australia (112,3), Canada ( 82,1), Algeria (49,9), Turkmenistan (40,7), Indonesia (21,8) and Nigeria (19,6).

It was calmer on the market this morning oil (WTI +0,16%, Brent 0% around 9:15).

By the way, you can pay attention to at least annual price minimums for electricity contracts in Europe. They were established yesterday for energy prices in Spain, Belgium, Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. Unfortunately, these contracts have a short history. The longest - reaching until June 2021 - is the one for electricity contracts in the Netherlands. The current price is the lowest in this period, slightly exceeding the lows of June 2023 and June 2021 (beginning of quotations).

At least the annual lows in the exchange rates of the Czech koruna and the Hungarian forint against the Polish zloty attracted attention on the domestic currency market. The Hungarian forint was the cheapest against the Polish zloty since at least the mid-90s, since quotations were available. The Czech koruna was the cheapest against the zloty since December 2020.

Source: Wojciech Białek, OANDA TMS Brokers