WIG20 lags behind global stock exchanges. More and more short positions

Global stock markets are holding very high, led by the German index DAX, which breaks further records, exceeding the level of 18300 points. Thus, the rate of return on this index is approaching 9% from the beginning of 2024. The American S&P 500, in turn, boasts a rate of return of 9,97%, and Nasdaq xnumx in turn, it increased by 9,66% since the beginning of the year. Meanwhile, the rate of return on WIG20 is 0,5%.

The discrepancy between the stock exchange in Poland and abroad is increasing

As a result, it is easy to notice that the divergence between leading Polish companies and German or American companies is increasing. Additionally, it is worth noting that the number of items in the short sale register kept by KNF. There we will find information that the funds are playing on the decline in share prices of almost half of the companies from WIG20: LPP, ALLEGRO, BUDIMEX, JSW, PKNORLEN, CDPROJEKT, PEPCO, DINOPL. Such companies can be found in the register with short positions reported by Marshall Wace LLP, Qube Research & Technologied Limites, Arrowstreet Capital, Sylebra Capital and AQR Capital Management.

Key technical levels for FW20

From a chart perspective, the bears seem to be in control at the moment. In the futures quotations, we can find two important levels in the area of ​​2424 and 2408 points. From the point of view of the chart, exceeding them could drive the bears out of the market and could lead to an attempt to attack 2500 points. Meanwhile, support may remain around 2315 points. Exceeding this level may, in turn, open the way to a downward movement towards 2220 points. There may be further support for FW20 quotes there.

Domestic factors do not help WIG20

The series of events in our backyard seems to follow only one negative line. The case with LPP, the results of DINO, the State Tribunal for the President of the National Bank of Poland or the stopping of the zloty rally are potential events that may indicate that the inflow of foreign capital to our market will be stopped at this time. It seems that April may be a month to test the strength of the bulls at Książęca. Global factors may favor risky assets in the coming month and we will see whether WIG20 will benefit from this and reach a new peak. If not, and Western markets continue the boom, it may be difficult for us to achieve further growth, and then lining up with funds betting on the decline of WIG20 companies may be considered.