BTC in consolidation. What does it mean for investors and how will the speeches of Powell and Lagarde be affected?

Bitcoin price it has recently decreased to levels last seen in the first decade of June. This also means that the bitcoin rate is still consolidating between $31000 and $25000. It is in this volatility range of about 25% that BTC/USD quotes have been moving since mid-March.

Bitcoin and comparison with previous periods of consolidation

This, in turn, means that the bitcoin price has been in consolidation for 20 weeks. This is a relatively rare phenomenon. The last time a consolidation price move lasted this long was from mid-June 2022 to late October 2022, and then the market collapsed with collapse of the FTX exchange.

Potential events affecting the new bitcoin trend

So it seems that a new bitcoin trend may start soon, as it may become increasingly difficult to keep the market in consolidation, especially with so many different market-related events that we are currently dealing with.

Key support and resistance levels

From the point of view of possible significant levels of resistance or support in the bitcoin market, one can look at around $20000 if the market breaks down from the mentioned consolidation and around $30500 if it moves up. $20000 is the low of early March, where we saw a strong demand response with a surge towards $30000.

Meanwhile, the USD 30500 region may be the first supply barrier in the event of a rebound. It seems that only defeating it, together with the vicinity of USD 31500, could only open the way towards USD 38000.

Bitcoin dominance in the context of the market

While bitcoin remained consolidating, its dominance seemed to decline. At the end of June it was 52%, and now it has fallen to 49%. Nevertheless, it is probably too early to say that something has permanently changed and that bitcoin has lost its advantage over altcoins.

External factors and their impact on the price of bitcoin

What may be crucial for the further behavior of the price? On the one hand, events in traditional capital markets. The statistical study shows that since the beginning of the year, the dominance of bitcoin strongly correlates with the Nasdaq 100 index (dominance, not the price of the cryptocurrency). In other words, the growth of the Nasdaq 100 is the same as the flow of capital from altcoins to BTC and vice versa. In turn, how traditional markets and the US dollar, which gains for the sixth consecutive week, will behave may depend on Jerome Powell's comments today at a symposium in Jackson Hole.

The speech will start at 16:05. The president will speak at 21 p.m EBC —Christine Lagarde.