What EUR / USD exchange rate at the end of 2020?

Less than two weeks before the end of 2019, the EUR / USD exchange rate is testing around 1,1120 USD and remains below the resistance line connecting the peaks of September 2018 and June this year, as well as below the local peaks of October and beginning of November. The balance of strengths on the daily chart, until the pair's quotations break above the resistance zone ending at 1,1179, now indicates the risk of reversing towards 1,10.

Diagram EUR / USD, D1 interval. Source: MT4 Tickmill.

The end of the year is the right time to ask where it will be EUR / USD for 12 months, at the end of 2020? Technical analysis does not clearly determine this, but at the moment slightly higher chances are that EUR / USD will be lower than at present. According to the principle that the trend continues until there are credible signals of its reversal. For now, the euro is in a long-term downward trend against the dollar and there are no strong signals of its change. We could only talk about these if the EUR / USD exchange rate not only broke above the above mentioned resistance, but was above the June maximum at 1,1412.

Be sure to read: Technical analysis and its predictions. The concept of convergence of candlestick chart signals.

What results from fundamental analysis?

The situation is slightly different from the point of view of fundamental analysis. Believing that 2020 will bring a revival in the European economy, and at the same time Americans will feel the consequences of trade wars firsthand, strengthens expectations for an increase in EUR / USD prices. Especially since a large group of investors may also assume that during the election campaign President Trump will try to weaken the dollar.

And what does the market forecast? Analysts surveyed by the Reuters agency assume that in 12 months the EUR / USD exchange rate will rise to 1,15. Their forecasts range from 1,05 to 1,25. Of the known institutions, Societe Generale is most pessimistic about the dollar. The bank forecasts the EUR / USD exchange rate at 1,20. Barclays is the most optimistic, assuming a year-long course slump with its decline at the end of the year to 1,07. Whereas Westpac, whose forecasts have been the most effective so far, expects a rate of 1,12.

EUR / USD, long-term forecasts.