Minutes of the European Central Bank in the spotlight

Today's session on international financial markets may be a bit muted due to the ongoing Thanksgiving holiday in the US and Labor Day in Japan. However, the slightly lower forecast volatility does not change the fact that investors will know or have already learned several key macro readings, which may slightly reduce this lack of data.

The topic of the day will be ECB Minutes from the last decision-making meeting European Central Bank (26.10.2023/XNUMX/XNUMX). At the moment, there seems to be broad market sentiment regarding the path of interest rates on the Old Continent does not give much space for further movements, unless future macro data indicate an extraordinary rebound in inflation pressure on the Community market. Interest rate futures indicate that the market is pricing in the first rate cuts from April 2024, and more aggressive moves may occur as early as June.

What should you pay attention to during today's Minutes? First of all, it is worth analyzing distribution of bankers' votes in favor of increases, maintenance or reductions, as well as comments on key factors shaping possible ECB decisions.

Today's session includes not only Minutes, but also preliminary PMI data for November for key European economies. In general terms, the data from the euro zone are slightly better than expected, but the scale of this surprise is so small that it cannot be concluded that there has been a sharp strengthening of business sentiment on the Old Continent. The main indicators are still stable well below the 50 barrier, which indicates a contraction in economic activity.

The zloty does not record excessive changes this morning. After 10:00 we paid PLN 4,0042 for the dollar, PLN 4,3640 for the euro, PLN 4,5300 for the franc, and PLN 5,0050 for the pound.

Source: Mateusz Czyżkowski, XTB