The report 'Poland and Europe 2021 - a new economic deal'

In 2021, we are still struggling with the COVID-19 pandemic, and economic development in the next year will largely depend on the development and scale of infections. The pandemic has left its mark in many areas, including the banking sector. The report "Poland and Europe - a new economic deal" is a compilation of the most important economic data for the last year and a presentation of forecasts for the coming years.

In 2020 and 2021, the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic has become a priority for all countries in the world. Counteracting its effects also includes dealing with the economic crisis, which in 2020 had the largest forecast scale. Although the economies of many countries are returning to the pre-pandemic path of development, the consequences of this sudden economic slowdown will be felt for at least the next few years.

In 2021, the pandemic will still be a huge economic threat, but greater awareness and better preparation of enterprises and households to its limitations, as well as state support, make it possible for us, as a society, to cope with such challenges. We have learned to function in the face of numerous constraints, thanks to which the downturns in economic activity are not so drastic.

According to the forecasts of the European Commission, by the end of 2021, the economy of the European Union will grow from -6,1% to + 4,2%. It is worth noting that almost all of the 27 EU countries ended 2020 in the red. The forecasts for 2021 predict that all EU countries will end it with a positive level CBAand Poland will record an increase of 4,0%. The forecasts regarding the dynamics of changes in GDP in 2022 also provide reasons for optimism. According to forecasts, all EU countries can count on economic growth.

Inflation - forecasts for 2021 and 2022

The report of the Polish Bank Association predicts that in 2021 inflation will reach a record level. The forecast for the European Union is 1,9%. The countries with the highest forecasted level of inflation are Hungary (4%) and Poland (3,5%). In 2022, these two countries will still remain leaders in price growth. If the forecasts turn out to be correct, then in three years prices will increase by nearly 10,1% in the case of Poland and by 10,6% in Hungary. In the entire European Union, prices in 2022 will soar up by 1,5%.

Unemployment rate

According to the report "Poland and Europe - a new economic deal", the main factors that will affect unemployment in the coming years are: the pace of economic recovery, relocation of employees between sectors and companies, but also the date of withdrawal of public support. The average unemployment rate in the European Union in 2020 was 7,1%. Taking into account all the variables, it is forecasted that in 2021 this indicator will increase and will amount to 7,6% in the European Union and as much as 8,4% in the euro area. Forecasts for 2022 indicate that the unemployment rate will decrease in the vast majority of European Union countries. Unemployment rate for the entire EU it will fall from 7,6% to 7,0%, and in the euro area from 8,4% to 7,8%.

Export and import

The global economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic in many countries around the world has disrupted the global supply chain. In 2020, we saw a clear decline in the global level of exports and imports. According to the analysts of the Polish Bank Association, in January-June 2021, there was a rebound and increase in the level of exports compared to the same period in 2020.

Poland was among 9 countries where the y / y increase in exports was the highest. The value of exports for Poland amounted to EUR 2021 million from January to June 136,9 - an increase of 24%. Imports in the EU also increased in a similar way. Eurostat data show that the greatest increase in this indicator is attributed to Estonia (30%). Poland recorded an increase at the same level as Romania, which amounts to 26%.

Budget deficit

It is hard not to get the impression that due to the pandemic and numerous aid programs, the coming years will be marked by a greater level of indebtedness in European economies. As indicated by the average forecasts budget deficit for European countries in 2021 it will amount to 102,4 percent. in the euro area and 94,4 percent. throughout the European Union. According to Eurostat data, the budget deficit in Poland will increase to 57,1%. This value is close to the level of the Netherlands (58%) and Slovakia (59,5%). In turn, forecasts for 2022 indicate a deficit of 92,9% in the EU and 100,8% in the euro area.

Banking sector in Europe

The report "Poland and Europe - a new economic deal" also looks at the financial market. There is no doubt that the economic changes caused by the pandemic have a very severe impact on it. The first indicator of the crisis has always been the capital market, and the huge declines in global stock markets last year confirmed the coming of the recession. In the banking sector, as in many other sectors of the economy, the effects of the pandemic were observed only with a certain delay and now it should be forecast that the changes caused by the crisis will be felt in a few years' perspective.

The report analyzes the condition of the European and Polish banking sector and presents its impact on the development of the economy. More details in the study presentation "Poland and Europe - a new economic deal in 2021”On the website of the Polish Bank Association.

Source: press materials of the Polish Bank Association