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Russian industry in recession. The sanctions will aggravate the crisis
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Russian industry in recession. The sanctions will aggravate the crisis

created Daniel Kostecki1 March 2022

Manufacturing PMI IHS Markit Russia fell in February this year. to 48,6 from 51,8 in the previous month. This means the first decline in the sector in five months and the lowest reading since August last year.

The reason for the recession in the Russian industry however, there are no Western sanctions for Russia's attack on Ukraine. This has not yet been included in the study. It was the pandemic that caused, among others, production and new orders in the Russian economy fell for the first time in six months due to weak domestic and foreign demand.

The war will deepen the losses 

According to Markit, purchasing activity in Russia fell for the first time in six months. At the same time, employment decreased at the highest pace since August last year. due to lower production requirements.

Manufacturing cost inflation accelerated to the fastest level since June last year in Russia as firms universally associated rising input prices with rising supplier costs, while output inflation accelerated to an eight-month high.

The mood in Russia's industry improved to its highest level since August 2019. This may be associated with hopes for a further increase in customer demand and investments in new technologies and production processes. However, this is unlikely to happen due to the sanctions imposed. The impact of the attack by Russian soldiers on Ukraine will be even more severe for the Russian economy than the pandemic.

Coal time

A moderate calm is observed in world markets. Oil and gas prices are not subject to above-average fluctuations. In the commodity market, however, attention is focused on coal prices, which have been rising rapidly since yesterday, breaking new records. Hence the good attitude of energy and mining companies yesterday on the Warsaw Stock Exchange.

The Union will do order with cryptocurrencies?

In the financial market, we could observe a significant increase in cryptocurrency prices. Both Bitcoinand individual alticoins.

Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank, recently mentioned that in Europe the cryptocurrency market should be regulated as soon as possible so that the money of Russian oligarchs is not kept in them, avoiding sanctions. Binance Exchange however, yesterday refused to suspend customer accounts from Russia.

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About the Author
Daniel Kostecki
Chief Analyst of CMC Markets Polska. Privately on the capital market since 2007, and on the Forex market since 2010.
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