A quiet start to an interesting week, inflation in the spotlight

The last week of February started calmly on the financial markets. Mixed moods prevailed on Asian stock exchanges, with a slight tendency to take profits, but even in the case of the weakest indices, the decline did not exceed 1%. However, he grew slightly Japanese Nikkei, which thus reached new historical records and everything indicates that this week it may attack the psychological barrier of 40000 points.

Calm before the storm

Monday morning brings slight price drops gold, oil i Bitcoin. Minor changes can also be observed on the currency market, where EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY practically remain at the levels from Friday's closing. The only exception is significant profit-taking on NZD/USD, after the pair failed to break above 0,62 twice at the end of last week.

USD/JPY daily chart. Source: Tickmill

The market calm observed during the Asian hours will likely also be observed when trade moves first to Europe and later to the US. This is due to a practically empty market calendar. Today, data on new home sales in the US and the index will be published Fed from Dallas, but these are tertiary reports. The boss's speech scheduled for 17 p.m. will probably not cause too many emotions ECB Christine Lagard.

The market is waiting for macro data

In terms of macroeconomic publications, the next few days will be very interesting. There will be a lot of data and these will be significant publications. First of all, reports on inflation in Europe come to the fore. On Thursday (February 29), preliminary readings of February CPI inflation will be published in France, Spain and Germany, and a day later (March 1) in Italy and the entire euro zone. These reports will constitute an important reference point for expectations as to when the European Central Bank will decide to cut interest rates for the first time.

In Switzerland, it is a reference to future decisions National Bank of Switzerland However, Swiss GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2023 may be published on Wednesday.

These will not be the only data from Europe that will arrive this week, because there will be quite a lot of these reports, including the February readings of PMI indices for the industrial sector in given economies published on Friday, but these will definitely be the most important reports that will absorb investors' attention.

On the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, we will also have a flood of macroeconomic data from the American economy this week. On Tuesday, among others: Data on durable goods orders and the Conference Board consumer confidence index will be published. A day later, investors will receive a revision of US GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2023 and weekly data on fuel stocks. On Thursday, data on Americans' spending and income will be published, which includes the publication of important inflation indices PCE. On the same day, weekly data on unemployment benefits and the latest PMI readings will also be released. On Friday, the ISM and PMI indices for American industry and the final value of the University of Michigan index will be published. Additionally, there are a lot of speeches by Fed representatives this week, which may also influence market sentiment.

The week also promises to be interesting for the Asia-Pacific region. CPI inflation data in Japan will be published on Tuesday. A day later, interest rates will be decided Reserve Bank of New Zealand. On Friday, the PMI indices for the Chinese economy will be published, which will shed more light on the economy of the Middle Kingdom, which may have a direct impact not only on the recently rebounding Chinese stock markets, but also on the situation on the raw material market.