Stock market facing the specter of recession [Closer to the Stock Exchange]

Recent macroeconomic readings coming to us from the US indicate a progressive deterioration of the mood among American entrepreneurs. Regional ISM indicators continue to decline and are at their lowest level in more than two years. There are many indications that the US economy is entering a period of slowdown.

On the other hand, the PMI indices for industry and the services sector, released last Friday, rose above the key level of 50 points. The US manufacturing PMI has not been this high since October 2022. So it looks like we still have more questions than answers for the US economy. Will the Fed be willing to raise interest rates further in such a situation?

Is there a recession ahead?

Recent comments from members Federal Reserve increased the probability of another interest rate hike by 25 bp. at next week's meeting. According to analysts' expectations, Wednesday's hike should be the last in this cycle, and in the following months of this year the Fed should keep interest rates unchanged. The coming quarters may therefore be a challenge for American companies. The higher cost of money is one of the factors that, according to experts, will contribute to the occurrence of a recession in the United States. Bloomberg estimates the chances of such a scenario occurring in the next twelve months at 65%.

According to Moody's, a mild recession is expected to appear in the second half of this year, and it will be felt most strongly by companies in the sectors related to durable goods, marketing and telecommunications. The energy and healthcare sectors are also expected to be under pressure. Which industries will the recession miss?

We invite you to the webinar Closer to the Stock Exchangein which we look at the possible effects of a potential recession in the United States.

In the latest webinar:

• Is there a recession ahead?
• What industries are most at risk?
• Will the Fed tighten the recession screw?

Host: Mateusz Czyżkowski

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