A hot week in the markets. FED, BoE and BoJ in the spotlight

This week, the US Federal Reserve will make interest rate decisions, Bank of England and the Bank of Japan. In addition, there is a lot of important macroeconomic data in the calendar (especially from the US and China). And finally, we have the Day of the Three Witches on the stock exchanges.

Investors are waiting for US data

The week between June 12 and June 18 starts calmly, because on Monday there are no important events and macroeconomic publications in the calendar. It will be proverbial though "calm before the storm". Because this week in the financial markets will be really hot. Volatility can reach its zenith.

They will be published on Tuesday, June 13 US CPI inflation data for the month of May According to forecasts, this inflation will fall to 4,1 percent. from 4,9 percent y/y in April, and core CPI inflation will fall to 5,3 percent. from 5,5 percent This will be the last important chord before the meeting FOMC one day later. On the same day, data from the labor market will be released from the UK, which may have a significant impact on the pound and on expectations regarding future decisions of the Bank of England.

Wednesday June 14th will be it show performed by the American FOMC and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. After a string of interest rate hikes, the FOMC is now expected to leave them on hold, leaving the federal funds rate in the range of 5,00-5,25% to get a better look at the impact on the US economy of the hikes so far. The decision will be announced at 20:00 Polish time. Half an hour later, the press conference of the head of the Fed will begin, who will explain the decision to investors. The reception of his words may largely depend on the data published the day before May CPI inflation in the US, as well as the May data published before the FOMC decision PPI inflation in Usa. The latter in themselves will probably not generate volatility in the markets, because they will be released a few hours before the FOMC.

On Wednesday, investors will also get more UK data. Namely, the report on industrial production.

Mass of macro data on Thursday

On Thursday, June 15, data about New Zealand GDP for the first quarter of 2023 i Australian labor market report, but the markets' attention should primarily focus on the ECB and data from the US and China.

As expected The ECB will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday. It's already included in the price. Thus, the reaction of the markets will primarily depend on what Christine Lagarde, the head of the ECB, will say about further changes in monetary policy at the press conference.

Before investors find out what the ECB has decided, they will get to know the data from China on industrial production and retail sales for May. This data is important in assessing the economic situation in the Chinese economy, which will have a significant impact on the mood on the commodities market. Copper may be particularly sensitive to them.

In the afternoon on Thursday there will be a lot of data from the US. Above all, they deserve attention reports on industrial production and retail sales. They will supplement the previously mentioned inflation data from the US and will be related to future FOMC decisions on interest rates.

Thursday will also be important for the Polish stock market. Specifically for the banking sector listed there. Because on that day The CJEU will issue another judgment on CHF loans. For banks, this may mean a negative impulse, but also ... the final picture of this risk, because investors may come to the conclusion that everything has already been discounted.

BoJ - no surprises?

On Friday, June 16, he will make a decision on monetary policy Bank of Japan. However, there will be no surprise here. The bank will neither change interest rates nor should it significantly change its communication. However, on Friday it may be hot in the stock markets. On this day, the so-called Day of the Three Witches, i.e. the June series of futures and options expire. Their settlement may generate increased volatility in the stock markets. In the case of the WSE, the WIG20 index is particularly vulnerable.