The zloty is waiting for data from the Polish economy

It may be a hot Monday for the zloty. The Polish currency is stronger today than due to external factors (including moods on global markets, exchange rate changes EUR / USD), should respond to national factors. And it's not about national politics, because it will have no impact, but about the entire series of December macroeconomic data that will be published this morning by the Central Statistical Office (GUS).

Data from the Polish economy

At 10:00, the Central Statistical Office will publish December data on retail sales (forecast: 4,6% Y/Y), industrial production (forecast: -5,0% Y/Y), construction and assembly production (forecast: 4,0% Y/Y), as well as wages (11,9% Y/Y) and employment in companies (-0,2% Y/Y). In addition, there will be January data on the economic situation in Poland.

On Monday morning, the zloty remains stable against the main currencies, after it significantly strengthened on Friday, reacting, among others, to the information that the Polish government has met the last three conditions for the full release of structural funds worth EUR 76 billion. Let us recall that even before the last parliamentary elections in Poland, the risk of blocking funds from the European Union was one of the important factors weighing on the Polish currency.

Situation on the EUR/PLN market

This morning the EUR/PLN exchange rate is at PLN 4,3505, after last week it attacked levels above PLN 4,40, including the October "post-election" low of PLN 4,4079. The euro thus returned to the 50-day average, the recent breach of which was the strongest indication of the strengthening of the common currency. If the EUR/PLN exchange rate does not go up again in the coming days, this upward correction in quotations that has been going on for a month will have to be considered over.

EUR / PLN daily chart. Source: Tickmill

The dollar is valued at nearly PLN 4

This morning, the US dollar costs PLN 3,9936, which is PLN 7 less than at the peak last week. The USD/PLN chart, similarly to the EUR/PLN chart, returned to the 50-day average, which puts a big question mark on the upward scenario resulting from the oRGR formation visible on the daily chart. However, until this formation is completely negated (or new supply signals are generated), this scenario of increases to the area of ​​PLN 4,12-4,13 cannot be finally considered. However, it can already be said that if the upward correction on USD/PLN is prolonged, the above-mentioned zone of PLN 4,12-4,13 will be all that the demand side will be able to afford in the coming weeks.

USD / PLN daily chart. Source: Tickmill