Black Friday 2022: Promotions versus inflation and weak zloty

Tomorrow Black Friday 2022 – the day that symbolically begins the pre-Christmas shopping rush. Chances for good promotions are strengthened by sellers' fear of the upcoming recession and the reduction of consumer spending. On the other hand, prices are driven up by inflation and the weak zloty, which may make the next Black Friday the next most expensive in history.

Promotions and recession

Black Friday (November 25) and Cyber ​​Monday (November 28), i.e. the days of the biggest sales promotions that begin the pre-Christmas shopping rush. Year after year, however, promotions appear in Poland earlier and earlier: this year, some stores organized Black Week, starting the sale period a week earlier.

The chances of big discounts this year are due to fear of sellers ahead of the coming recession and future cuts in consumer spending. Many manufacturers now have full warehouses of goods, which have been filled when the problems in global logistics during and after the pandemic disappeared. However, with them also disappeared the surplus cash with which consumers around the world emerged from the pandemic.

Black Friday 2022 under the sign of inflation?

On the other hand, due to inflation, we are facing the next most expensive Black Friday in history. It should be noted, however, that the price increase did not affect all products equally. The level of consumer inflation at the end of October amounted to 17,9 percent. y/y Such a high result was mainly due to increases in the prices of energy carriers - 41,6 percent. and food - 22,8 percent. Of the goods that we most often buy on Black Friday, the prices of cosmetics increased the most - by 13,3 per cent, household appliances - by 8,2 per cent. and clothing – by 6,9 percent. On the other hand, electronic, photographic and IT equipment increased by only 0,1 percent during this year.

Black Friday exchange rates in 2021 and 2022

Source: eToroown calculations

However, we will have to pay more for some electronic products than in previous years. Mainly those imported from the US and Asia, whose prices increase along with the increase in the price of the dollar. And this year it is more than 8 percent. more expensive than last Black Friday. This applies, for example, to all the company's products Apple Lossless Audio CODEC (ALAC),whose prices in Poland have increased significantly over the last year. Imported products bought for euros and pounds may even turn out to be slightly cheaper than a year ago. Of course, provided that their price in the original currency has not changed. However, this may be difficult to achieve, as inflation in the euro area is 10,6 percent and in Great Britain it is 11,1 percent.

About the author

Pawel Majtkowski - analyst eToro on the Polish market, which shares its weekly commentary on the latest stock market information. Paweł is a recognized expert on financial markets with extensive experience as an analyst in financial institutions. He is also one of the most cited experts in the field of economy and financial markets in Poland. He graduated from law studies at the University of Warsaw. He is also the author of many publications in the field of investing, personal finance and economy.