Oil prices go up. What will happen when they exceed $ 80. for a barrel? 

Futures contracts for WTI oil surged to $ 73 a barrel today, making up for most of the recent omicron decline. Concerns that the new form of the coronavirus could harm global economic growth and fuel demand seem to be lowered by, among others, following announcements from vaccine companies.

Third dose versus omicron

The omicron may be gentler than initially thought, and medical concerns Pfizer i BionTech they said on Wednesday that a third dose of their vaccine provides a high level of protection against this coronavirus mutation. Such a declaration alleviates the fear of new restrictions on air travel and a reduction in fuel demand.

Raw material price increases may also be served by the fact that the 2015 agreement on the nuclear pact with Iran still seems distant, and the tension between the West and Russia over Ukraine remains high. Geopolitical risk seems to be keeping oil prices additionally at higher levels.

Agency details EIA showed that US crude oil inventories fell by a modest 0,24m barrels last week, while Cushing's crude oil inventories increased by 2,37mn barrels, the largest increase since the week ended February 19.

Cheaper oil means lower inflation and less pressure to raise interest rates

However, long-term oil price increases seem unlikely. The largest consumers of oil could release their strategic reserves if the price of a barrel exceeded $ 80. Hence, oil prices are more likely to consolidate between $ 62 and $ 76 a barrel. If the oil price rally were to be averted in the long term, inflation could ease, and so could the pressure on interest rate hikes that is now on the shoulders of central banks around the world.

According to the survey conducted by the Reuters agency, the next interest rate hike by Federal Reserve it would only take place in the third quarter of 2022, and therefore much later than the market estimating the date for the second quarter of 2022.

We can get more information on this matter next week, when the macroeconomic projections of the committee members will also appear after the Fed's decision FOMC.