Macro data supports the Polish economy

Wednesday's session on international financial markets brings mixed investor sentiment. European listed companies are mostly losing, the dollar continues its rebound, and the uncertain ground of the session itself is additionally reinforced by the meeting scheduled for today FOMC. Things are also interesting in Poland, thanks to very good macro data for February.

The strength of the Polish economy

At 10:00 a.m., the Central Statistical Office published a set of macro data for February from the Polish economy. In general terms wages and salaries increased by 12,9% y/y compared to 12,8% y/y a month ago (forecast 11,3% y/y). Moreover, industrial production also beat analysts' expectations. The reading was 3,3% y/y (expected: 2,6%), and a month ago it was 1,6% y/y. PPI inflation surprised with a stronger decline to -10,1% y/y (expected -8,7% y/y).

The published data indicate the strength of the Polish economy and thus may be a factor supporting the maintenance of the hawkish monetary policy of the Monetary Policy Council. The relatively hawkish background of today's data did not manage to create a rebound in the pairs related to the Polish zloty. It is losing today under the pressure of the strong dollar and testing the 3.98 zones.

Investor attention to Powell's comments

However, topic number 1 of today's session will be the FOMC's decision on interest rates. As was the case at the last meeting, the decision on rates should not surprise the markets (rates are expected to remain unchanged), but investors' attention will focus on Powell's comments and the dot chart.

Inflation data for February did not give comfort to bankers. Rent-free services record an increase to 3,9% and although in PCE the situation may be slightly better, PPI also showed some renewed pressure. It seems that there is a chance for a dovish surprise in the dot-plot chart, which may show a greater scale of easing this year than in December.

On a broad market especially The US dollar is doing well at the moment. The Japanese yen is experiencing greater declines in particular. We will currently pay PLN 3,9876 for the dollar, PLN 4,3232 for the euro, PLN 4,4755 for the franc, and PLN 5,0610 for the pound.

Source: Mateusz Czyżkowski, XTB