The Federal Reserve's decision is crucial for currencies, commodities and bonds

Federal Reserve will announce on Wednesday the decision to change interest rates in the US. Market expectations assume a 25bp hike, and the move by the Fed may affect the dollar, stock indices, precious metals prices and bond yields. 

The probability of raising interest rates seems to be increased by the inflation report. The annual rate of dynamics of prices in the US accelerated in February to 7,9%, ie to the highest level in 40 years. These data appeared even before the increase in energy commodity prices caused by the war, which the US central bank faces the need to maintain a balance between curbing inflation and supporting economic growth. Investors can listen carefully to any changes in the central bank's forecasts for interest rates, inflation and the economy, given the additional uncertainty surrounding Russia's attack on Ukraine.

Oil prices: down from $ 130,5 to $ 106

It can influence the level of inflation and the actions of the Fed oil priceand this fell on Monday by around 3 percent to USD 106 a barrel, extending last week's cuts in hopes of de-escalation of the war. US deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman said on Sunday that Russia was showing signs of readiness to enter into meaningful negotiations. Another round of talks on the terms of the ceasefire is to begin today.

It's worth recalling that US crude oil last week peaked at $ 14 per barrel in 130,5 years, then turned back and closed the week much lower. Probably because investors assessed the potential improvement in supply prospects, which had been disrupted by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions associated with it.

Market participants are now waiting for reports that could indicate a potential oil oversupply this year. They also follow developments in the Iranian nuclear talks, which faced the prospect of collapse as, at the last minute, a Russian demand forced the world powers to halt negotiations. It seems important because lifting the sanctions from Iran and introducing oil from this country to the world markets could contribute to a drop in the prices of the raw material.