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Forex: protocols and real estate provide an opportunity for speculation

Forex: protocols and real estate provide an opportunity for speculation

created Michał SielskiAugust 19 2019

This week we will find, among others, data from the US housing market. Analysts say they will be great, so if they make a mistake it could be a bargain. Nervous movements will also be around the publication of minutes of the FOMC and EBC. We know the effects, but more details always allow speculative movements. When can we expect them to arrive?

This year's summer surprises investors accustomed to low volatility during the holidays. Affected is undoubtedly uncertainty about the date and, above all, the form Brexitu and the fate of Great Britain. The game is still because the British leave the European Union without a contract, i.e. hard Brexit. We also hear more and more about early elections, which is reflected in the price of the pound, which only last week began to make up for gigantic losses.

The trade war between the US and China is still making itself felt. There is also a constant confusion on the oil market, which has hit the hole, but there are many indications that there is no shortage of those willing to push its course to much higher levels.

That's all  makes prices can change significantly in one day. Changes by 4 percent on crude, 1 percent on currencies and declines or increases in the stock indexes by several percent are movements long not seen in August at such a high frequency. Everything seems to indicate that it's not over yet.

Hot August on the Forex market

Although we entered the second half of August, many investors are still on vacation, but it does not change the fact that we can expect further major moves. This week there will be plenty of speculation.

It will start calmly with Tuesday publication of the minutes of the RBA monetary policy meeting, which took place in August. We know that the Reserve Bank of Australia has kept interest rates unchanged. It has also been suggested that low interest rates will be maintained for a long time to keep inflation under control and to stimulate a decline in unemployment. For playing on "Australian" however, Tuesday can be exciting.

We can expect bigger moves on Wednesday. At. 16 will know the report from the US real estate market. Economists estimate that there will be an increase of over 2,5 percent. on a monthly basis, when 5,27 million properties were sold. The latest report is set at 5,4 million of properties sold. If the optimistic forecasts are not confirmed, then we have to reckon with nervous movements at the current tense time.  Especially that half an hour later we will get to know the report on the amount of crude oil reserves, prepared by the US EIA (Energy Information Administration). For dessert at 20, i.e. at the end of US stock exchange listings, the minutes of the July FOMC meeting will be made public. Details on lowering interest rates by Federal Reserve they always arouse emotions and it is difficult to expect that it would be different in this case.

It may still be nervous on Thursday when PMI indicators from the German economy, the entire euro area and the US will be published.

It is also worth remembering that the tension between the US and China also has a large impact - both on currencies and stock indices. Of course, the leader here is US President Donald Trump, who announces via Twitter his decisions on imposing further duties, or on easing the policy and warming relations with the second superpower. So it's worth watching the news of the US president, but it is not always necessary, because the market reacts immediately. But following Donald Trump's account will at least give an answer to what caused the sudden payback.

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About the Author
Michał Sielski
Professional journalist for over 20 years. He worked, among others, in Gazeta Wyborcza, recently associated with the largest regional portal - He has been present on the financial market for 18 years, he started on the Warsaw Stock Exchange when the shares of PKN Orlen and TP SA were just being introduced to the market. Recently, his investment focus has been exclusively on the Forex market. Privately, he is a parachutist, a lover of Polish mountains and a Polish karate champion.