The sharp depreciation of the zloty. Why is the PLN weakening? [Video]

Looking at the zloty exchange rate, one cannot help but notice that the Polish currency is weak. Just after 9:30 on Wednesday, October 17, we pay over PLN 4,64 for one euro, the Swiss franc is at the highest level from January 2015, while the USD / PLN currency pair is well on its way to testing the level 4,1100. Where does this weakness of the national currency come from? What are the reasons for the sharp depreciation of the zloty? Will this trend continue in 2022? These and other questions are answered by Przemysław Kwiecień the latest recording.

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Situation on the zloty market

Looking at the recent movements in emerging market currencies,  we will see a rather mixed picture. Most of them are clearly losing against the US dollar - remains the leader of the decline Turkish lira (over 6% down against the USD), but in the basket Emerging Markets we can also find currencies that were gaining (Brazilian real, Chilean peso or Thai baht). So it is not true that the November sell-off applies to all emerging market currencies.

This is already a warning lamp (...) if it is bad, we have a big risk-off, we have an escape to the dollar, an escape from risk, then all these currencies [emerging markets - perm. ed.] they are losing. It is not so now - Chief economist of the X-Trade Brokers Brokerage House, Przemysław Kwiecień, notes. 

The situation is worse from the beginning of the year. Looking at the past eleven months, among emerging-market currencies, only Russian ruble, Chinese renminbi and Taiwan dollar. The Polish zloty, which is close to the lower end of the statement, lost almost 9% this year against the USD. What is the reason for the weakness of the national currency? 

The most common reasons for the weakening of the zloty are high inflation, a delayed reaction of the Monetary Policy Council, a conflict between Warsaw - Brussels or the current crisis on the eastern border. Which of them are important? Will the Polish zloty continue to lose? In his latest webinar, Dr. Przemysław Kwiecień takes a closer look at the most important factors influencing the market sentiment towards the Polish zloty. It turns out that while the PLN remains under pressure, it is not less than most emerging market currencies. 

Dr Przemysław Kwiecień with a team of analysts XTB runs daily, morning analytical webinars on the YouTube channel of Dom Maklerski XTB Online Trading. During them, the most important market events and the current situation on the charts are commented on. All webinars are conducted in the live streaming formula, therefore their participants are free to ask questions to the lecturer.

About the host

Dr Przemysław Kwiecień - Chief economist X-Trade Brokers. Doctor of Economics at the University of Warsaw, graduate of the University of Warsaw and London Metropolitan University (MSc). Holder of the prestigious CFA certificate. He has been working for XTB since 2007, previously he gained experience as an advisor to the Minister of Finance, Mirosław Gronicki, and an economist at Bank Millennium. At XTB, he manages the Analysis Department.