Inflation is gathering strength before increasing further

After several months of strong increases, inflation stopped for the first time. A quick estimate of the Central Statistical Office indicates that in July inflation amounted to 15,5 percent. which is exactly the same as in June. However, this does not mean that the trend is changing, and inflation may continue to rise.

First signs of inhibition since February

Quick respect GUS indicates that inflation in July was the same as in June - ie 15,5 percent. y / y This is the first month without an increase in inflation since February. This is not a big surprise as some analysts expected inflation to fall in July. The reasons for slowing down the growth of inflation are, among others, declines gasoline prices. On the other hand, the prices of other energy carriers, including coal, were rising. The increase in July also recorded food prices.

The current reading does not mean that the inflation peak is already behind us. This one is still ahead of us, a it will reach the highest level in the first quarter of 2023 and may even exceed 20 percent. Its final amount depends largely on external factors, the most important of which remain energy prices in the world. At the moment, it is also the area of ​​the greatest uncertainty related to the forecasting of inflation.

About the author

Pawel Majtkowski - analyst eToro on the Polish market, which shares its weekly commentary on the latest stock market information. Paweł is a recognized expert on financial markets with extensive experience as an analyst in financial institutions. He is also one of the most cited experts in the field of economy and financial markets in Poland. He graduated from law studies at the University of Warsaw. He is also the author of many publications in the field of investing, personal finance and economy.