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Inflation and ADP report are key for the zloty
The highlight of Wednesday on the domestic currency market will be the publication of inflation data in Poland. It will be next afternoon ADP report on the situation in the US labor market and the reaction of the eurodollar to this report, the basic factor determining today's zloty behavior.
Analysis of the zloty market
The zloty started the day with a strengthening against the currency basket, thus recovering from its Tuesday weakening. At 09:15 the EUR / PLN exchange rate was at the level of PLN 4,5095, which meant a decrease of PLN 1 as compared to yesterday's close. At the same time, the USD / PLN exchange rate fell by 0,9 groszy to PLN 3,7880, CHF / PLN by 1,3 grosze to PLN 4,11, and GBP / PLN by almost PLN 2 to PLN 5,2360.
The Polish currency is gaining in value awaiting the publication of preliminary estimates in June inflation in Poland. The CSO will publish this data at 10:00. The market consensus is that inflation will fall to 4,6%. annually from 4,7 percent. in May. This is important data. Especially ahead of the July inflation report, published in less than 2 weeks, which will set the framework for actions Monetary Policy Council for the next few months. Today's data will make it possible to assess how credible is the Council's statement about a temporary jump in inflation in Poland.
Inflation remained at 4,7 percent in June. it would be a big surprise for the market and would reopen a discussion about earlier than suggested by prof. Adam Glapiński, pay rises interest rates in Poland. And this would translate into a strengthening of the zloty. Inflation below the forecast level of 4,6%. on the other hand, it would have caused the opposite reaction.
Data from Poland will give the zloty an impulse for changes in the first half of the day. However, the levels at which Polish pairs will end the day will be determined by the ADP report on employment change in the US private sector (forecast: +14k) and the reaction of the EUR / USD exchange rate to be released at 15:600.
