More rate hikes ahead? What will the week bring?

For the first six months of this year, the Nasdaq-100 gained almost 40%, making the past six months one of the best periods in history for this American index. However, the desire to continue the monetary policy tightening cycle by the Fed is food for thought.

Will the second half of this year be as positive for the markets?

The rise on Wall Street was undoubtedly helped by market expectations for the "AI revolution", which supported the share price of many tech companies. One example of such companies is Apple, which already outshines the economies of many countries with its market capitalization. However, the progressive decline in excess liquidity on the US stock market, combined with the still hawkish rhetoric of the Fed, mean that there is more and more talk about a possible turnaround on the charts.

PCE inflation – a favorite measure of inflation Federal Reserve – slowed to 3,8% in May, which, combined with the stagnation of consumer spending, indicates a potential loss of momentum in the US economy. On the other hand, the real estate market is rebounding - the sale of new single-family houses in May this year. rose by 12,2% m/m and amounted to 763. This week we will receive a handful of publications from the US labor market, which, according to forecasts, should support the Fed in further interest rate hikes. Will it really be like that?

Meanwhile, the subject of interest rate cuts in Poland is being discussed more and more strongly. Inflation in the country may fall to a single-digit level already in August, and this should pave the way for a possible reduction at the beginning of the last quarter of the year. However, the market is discounting not only the decline in interest rates in Poland, but also in the Czech Republic and Hungary.

In today's webinar:

• What do macroeconomic data tell us?
• Oil with no chance of rebound?
• Will the MPC cut interest rates?

About the host

Dr Przemysław Kwiecień - Chief economist X-Trade Brokers. Doctor of Economics at the University of Warsaw, graduate of the University of Warsaw and London Metropolitan University (MSc). Holder of the prestigious CFA certificate. He has been working for XTB since 2007, previously he gained experience as an advisor to the Minister of Finance, Mirosław Gronicki, and an economist at Bank Millennium. At XTB, he manages the Analysis Department.

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