Poles did their Christmas shopping in December, and Americans in November

In the US, many consumers have postponed their Christmas spending to November. Despite record-breaking holiday spending, retail sales in December alone, it fell by 1,9 percent. m / m. The data on the December retail sales in Poland will be released on Monday - forecasts indicate an increase of 16-18 percent. y / y This means that Poles made most of their Christmas shopping in December.

Retail sales are down

Retail sales across the US economy fell 1,9 percent in December. compared to November. It turns out, however, that from the data of retailers (National Retail Federation) shows that Americans' holiday spending was record-breaking. Sales increased by 14,1 percent in November and December. compared to the same period of 2020, this is a result much above the expectations of 8,5-10,5 percent. In the last 5 years, the average y / y increase in holiday spending amounted to 4,4%.

Why such a discrepancy in the US data? There are several explanations, the first one is shifting part of holiday spending to November. Throughout the holiday season, consumers were afraid of shortages of some goods, so earlier purchases gave them a chance to get them and protect them before Christmas. Those who did not have a chance to buy what they were waiting for ended up buying very popular gift cards of a certain value as gifts. Importantly, such cards are not included in retail sales, this sale will appear in the statistics only when the card is used.

It also looks like December can be divided into two periods, before and after Christmas. According to data from MasterCard SpendingPulse, i.e. a study of activity on American payment cards, retail expenses (excluding automotive expenses - including fuel and car purchases) increased by 1 y / y between November 24 and December 2021, 8,5 percent This is the period when the expenses grew. After Christmas, the purchasing activity of Americans decreased significantly, largely due to the already spreading variant of the Omikron coronavirus. It was also the period of the first problems with employees, the new mutation of which sent a large number to sickness. Therefore, the data for the entire economy for December showed a decline in sales.

According to official data, online sales fell by 8,7 percent in December. m / m. However, according to MasterCard data, during the entire holiday season, spending increased by 11 percent. y / y This is due to the fact that Black Friday and Cyber ​​Monday, which fall in November, remain key for online sales. This year, expenses on these days increased by 14,1% y / y. It can therefore be admitted that Christmas was indeed record-breaking in terms of spending in the US. However, sales slowed down quickly after Christmas.

Data from Poland next week

Data on Polish retail sales in December will be released on Monday. Forecasts indicate a possible increase in sales by 16-18 percent. y / y In November, retail sales increased by a record 21,2 percent. y / y Of course, such a significant increase is matched by inflation, which in December amounted to 8,6%. y / y The forecasted significant increase in sales in December shows, however, that the Poles, unlike the Americans, did the vast majority of their holiday spending in December. There was also no significant drop in sales just after Christmas. Probably the economic effects of the spread of the Omikron variant in Poland will be known in the economic data for January or February 2022.

About the author

Pawel Majtkowski - analyst eToro on the Polish market, which shares its weekly commentary on the latest stock market information. Paweł is a recognized expert on financial markets with extensive experience as an analyst in financial institutions. He is also one of the most cited experts in the field of economy and financial markets in Poland. He graduated from law studies at the University of Warsaw. He is also the author of many publications in the field of investing, personal finance and economy.