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US gas prices rise sharply
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US gas prices rise sharply

created Daniel KosteckiApril 6 2022

Futures contracts for natural gas in the US, they seem to grow by more than 7% to $ 6,1 million per million British thermal units. This is the highest price to pay for US gas since October 28. It seems that the increase may be caused by expectations of stronger demand and, at the same time, lower supply.

Updated data on gas flow in US pipelines showed the largest one-day decline in production since the slump in the weather and severe frosts in February.

Gas from the US is more than 60 percent more expensive in three months.

Foreign demand is expected to keep US LNG exports at record levels. European states are considering tightening sanctions against Moscow and withdrawing from gas imports from Russia when reports of war crimes committed by Russian troops in Ukraine have come to light. Britain called on the G7 countries and NATO to agree a schedule for the phasing out of oil and gas imports from Russia.

Thus, the gas market can continue geo-arbitrationwhere, despite the costs of transport, it is definitely more profitable for Europe to buy gas from the USA than from its own continent. Including Therefore, from the beginning of the month, i.e. in 6 days, the price of American gas seems to have increased by almost 10%, and from the beginning of the year the increase could have amounted to over 60%.

Crude Oil: Stabilization Above $ 100

For comparison, the price crude oil WTI could increase at the same time, i.e. from the beginning of the year, by about 35%. Today, WTI crude oil futures stabilized above $ 100 a barrel. Previously, we observed increased volatility for several days. This may have been influenced by threats of additional sanctions against Russia, counterbalancing concerns about weaker demand after the increase in US oil stocks and the extension of the lockdown in Shanghai.

US crude oil inventories rose by 1,1m bbl. Last week, contrary to market expectations which expected a 2,1m bbl decline. Concerns about demand in China also arose after authorities on Tuesday extended the lockdown in Shanghai to all 26 million residents in the Asian financial center.

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About the Author
Daniel Kostecki
Chief Analyst of CMC Markets Polska. Privately on the capital market since 2007, and on the Forex market since 2010.