Decrease of inflation in Poland. We know the preliminary data for November 2022.

According to preliminary data GUS, inflation in November amounted to 17,4 percent. This is the first drop in inflation in Poland since February. However, food prices continued to rise - by 22,3 percent. in the last year. This is bad news ahead of the upcoming holidays, which will be ¼ more expensive than last year.

Inflation in Poland has fallen

In November, inflation in Poland (for the first time since February) fell, this time to 17,4 percent. (from 17,9 percent in October). This is a much stronger decline than expected by analysts. However, the scenario that inflation will exceed 20% cannot be ruled out. in January 2023. From January, VAT on electricity, fuels and fertilizers is to return to the previous levels, before the reduction under the anti-inflation shield. Such a move, without the introduction of alternative protective solutions for households, may cause a jump in inflation by 2-3 percentage points. In the most likely scenario, inflation will peak in the first quarter of 2023 and then start to slowly decline. However, it will remain high and at the end of 2023 it will amount to about 13%.

Food is still getting more expensive

Despite a fall in inflation in November, food prices went up again. Over the past year, its prices have increased by 22,3 percent. (from 22 percent in October). This is bad news ahead of the upcoming holidays - the vast majority of Christmas spending is food shopping. For this reason, the upcoming holidays will be at least a quarter more expensive than last year.

At. At 11:00 we will also know the inflation reading in the euro zone, which - according to analysts' expectations - is to fall from 10,6 percent to 10,4 percent. in October to 6,2 percent. in November. The French inflation published today turned out to be the same as a month earlier and amounted to 10 percent. In Germany, by contrast, inflation fell to 10,4 percent. in November from XNUMX percent. in October.

Today, Poles live for the evening match Poland-Argentina. If the winner was to be a country with lower inflation, Poland would have victory in its pocket. Inflation in October amounted to 88 percent in Argentina. This country has been struggling with a permanent economic crisis for a long time, combined with a strong increase in prices.

About the author

Pawel Majtkowski - analyst eToro on the Polish market, which shares its weekly commentary on the latest stock market information. Paweł is a recognized expert on financial markets with extensive experience as an analyst in financial institutions. He is also one of the most cited experts in the field of economy and financial markets in Poland. He graduated from law studies at the University of Warsaw. He is also the author of many publications in the field of investing, personal finance and economy.