The week of data from the Polish economy

The post-holiday week is full of macroeconomic data releases from the Polish economy. They, apart from the moods in the global markets, may decide about the fate of the zloty.

While waiting for macro data

On Tuesday, the zloty remained relatively stable, continuing the consolidation after very large fluctuations at the turn of February and March. It seems that the currency market is waiting for new impulses. 

EUR / PLN daily chart. Source: Tickmill

Such an impulse that could end the consolidation observed since the beginning of the month may be the macroeconomic data from the Polish economy that will be published in large numbers this week.

Publication schedule

Yet today will be published core inflation data. In March consumer inflation in Poland, it shot up to 11 percent, which was a good result anyway, because it was largely lowered by the government's inflation shields. Without it, inflation would probably be around 14%. Today, however, data on core inflation will be released, ie without the impact of food and energy prices. It is estimated that in March it will increase to 6,9-7,0 percent. from 6,7 percent Y / R in February.

W Thursday markets will find out how it developed in March producer inflation (forecast: 18% y / y), industrial production (forecast: 11,9% y / y) and employment (forecast: 2,4% y / y) i wages in companies (forecast: 10,5% y / y) in March, as well as April data on consumer prosperity.

The week will end with the published in Friday March data about retail sales (forecast: 19,5% y / y) i construction and assembly production (forecast: 15,2% y / y) and the April report on economic prosperity in Poland. 

Finally, it is worth mentioning that today the zloty completely did not react to the words of prof. Henryk Wnorowski from the Monetary Policy Council (MPC), who pointed to the need to further raise interest rates (even up to 7,5%), suggested an increase in inflation in Poland to around 13%. in June, he did not rule out economic stagnation in 2023, but he also sees a chance for the continued gradual appreciation of the zloty.