According to NIK, Poles lost over PLN billion in the Forex market

80% losing and over 2 billions of zlotys losses over 4 years. This is the most important information included in the last report published today by the Supreme Audit Office. The report is a kind of summary of the results of Polish traders entering into transactions on the currency market.

NIK informs that as many as 80% of traders lost their funds in whole or in part, and the total amount of lost deposits is PLN 2. The collected and analyzed data refer to the years 100-000.

The report covers only clients of Polish investment companies. Foreign brokers and their clients are not included in the statement.

In 2015, the most traded currencies among Polish traders were the US dollar (as much as 87,6%), while the most popular pair was EUR / USD. Interestingly, interest in the Polish zloty was almost negligible and did not exceed 1%.

Analyzing the year of 2015 itself, it can be calculated that on average one trader lost 19,5 thousand. PLN and this is the highest value from the analyzed period. An interesting decrease is seen in the average loss in the first half of the year 2016 together with a strong increase in average profits.

NIK, following the trend that we can observe among the regulatory institutions of other European States, is opposed to introducing some restrictions in relation to the OTC market. They would be, among others:

• prohibition of advertising of OTC instruments addressed to Polish residents,
• increasing the effectiveness in prosecuting non-regulated foreign entities offering financial services to Polish residents without a permit,
• regulating the activity of online currency exchange offices,
• regulating the operation of virtual currency exchanges in Poland.

60% or 80% - what is the truth

Last year, the Polish Financial Supervision Authority imposed on Polish brokerage houses an obligation to report basic statistics regarding their clients. We are talking here primarily about the percentage of people losing to earners. To date, only two editions of these reports have been released, from which it appears that losses reach about 60% of traders.

Report for the third quarter of 2016

Report for the fourth quarter of 2016

How does this relate to the 80% reported by the Supreme Audit Office? Brokers are required to publish quarterly reports that completely separate each quarter of the year among themselves. This means that a trader who lost PLN 1 in the first quarter and earned PLN 4 in the second quarter will be shown in the second statement as profitable, even though his balance is ultimately negative. This makes the NIK report due to the long horizon of the analysis

Do these data shock?

The amount of PLN 2 billion is impressive. But you have to remember that this is the sum of 4 years. Theoretically, annual losses amount to "only" PLN 500 million on average, but it must be admitted that it is still a huge amount. In 2012-2015, the activity of FX traders was very high due to the low volatility and bear market on the Stock Exchange.

However, it must be admitted that it is 4 times better than the legendary "5% earning on Forex". Looking also at the results of 2016, you can to some extent look for an improvement in the situation in the future along with the increasing level of education and awareness of traders.

The full content of the report