According to the OECD forecast, in 2022 Poland will grow faster than China

Według OECD in 2022, we will face a reduction in the global growth dynamics from 5,6 to 4,5 percent. However, the world economy will continue to grow almost twice as fast as the average in the last 10 years. According to the same forecasts, the Polish economy is to grow faster than the Chinese economy next year.

About the author

Pawel Majtkowski - analyst eToro on the Polish market, which shares its weekly commentary on the latest stock market information. Paweł is a recognized expert on financial markets with extensive experience as an analyst in financial institutions. He is also one of the most cited experts in the field of economy and financial markets in Poland. He graduated from law studies at the University of Warsaw. He is also the author of many publications in the field of investing, personal finance and economy.

OECD forecasts for Poland better than for China

The OECD forecasts for economic growth presented on December 1 predict that Poland's GDP will increase by 2021% in 5,3. In the following year, the slowdown will be minimal and the growth will amount to 5,2%. The European Commission's forecasts for Poland predict an increase of 4,9 percent. in 2021 and by 5,2 percent. in 2022. It seems, however, that the OECD forecast is more realistic in the context of GDP growth for the third quarter, which amounted to 3%. y / y

Economic growth forecasts for selected countries in 2021 and 2022.

Source: OECD

Forecasts predict that worldwide we will have to deal with a decline in the GDP growth dynamics - from 5,6 percent. in the current year to 4,5 percent. in 2022. The slowdown in growth will occur in virtually all major economies in the world. Growth in India, the fastest growing of the major economies, will weaken from 9,4%. up to 8,1% In Great Britain, with 6,9 percent. will turn into 4,7%, similarly in the Euro zone there will be a drop from 5,2 to 4,3%. Even greater is forecasted in the US - from 5,6 percent. at 3,7 percent

The Chinese economy will also slow down from 8,1 percent. forecasted at the end of this year to 5,1 percent. next. This means that, according to the OECD, the Polish economy will grow faster than the Chinese one in annual terms. If these forecasts materialized, it would be the first such case since the beginning of the 90s, that is, since we have reliable data on GDP in Poland. Of course, it should not be forgotten that China's GDP is highly dependent on central planning and government.

GDP growth forecast for OECD countries at 4,5%. for next year, it has not changed in the last three months, despite the growing global risk of a pandemic. In this context, the consensus that the results of listed companies in the world will increase by 7%. seems understated. Global inflation is currently at a peak of 5%. and it will start falling soon. Interest rates the world will grow slowly from its current low levels and which will help assets such as commodities and equities.