Will fuel prices go up again? What will the week bring?

The week in the markets starts in quite poor moods. Not without significance are the problems of another Chinese developer, Country Garden, which initially reported multi-billion losses recorded in the first half of this year, and then withheld its debt service. Concerns have resurfaced in the market “second Evergrande”, however, oil prices may be more important for a global investor. Will we have to pay USD 100 for a barrel of oil again?

Forecasts for the fuel market

With US consumer inflation at 2022% in mid-9,1, high oil prices were responsible for much of the price pressure. Since then, the situation in the US has improved significantly - a significant tightening of monetary policy Fed and the release of strategic reserves oil by the US government contributed to both a drop in gas station prices and a drop in inflation.

Last week's data for the first time in three months indicated a possible slowdown or even a reversal of the ongoing trend of falling inflation in the United States. So far, the current level of prices has been compared with the period of their drastic increase - hence the year-on-year inflation dynamics naturally decreased. Of course, the factors mentioned above were also significant, but the situation was also favored by low oil prices.

Currently, when the price of WTI oil per barrel is stubbornly testing around USD 83, OPEC decisions taken in the first half of this year play an increasingly important role. The latest forecasts of the largest banks indicate that in the coming months the oil deficit may reach 2 million barrels a day. With a similar level of deficit in 2007-2008, the price of oil reached USD 150 per barrel. Will fuel prices go up again?

In today's webinar:

• Will oil go up?
• Will US inflation rise again?
• What to look for this week?

About the host

Dr Przemysław Kwiecień - Chief economist X-Trade Brokers. Doctor of Economics at the University of Warsaw, graduate of the University of Warsaw and London Metropolitan University (MSc). Holder of the prestigious CFA certificate. He has been working for XTB since 2007, previously he gained experience as an advisor to the Minister of Finance, Mirosław Gronicki, and an economist at Bank Millennium. At XTB, he manages the Analysis Department.

CFDs are complex instruments and involve a high risk of a quick loss of cash due to leverage. 76% of retail investor accounts record monetary losses as a result of trading CFDs with this CFD provider. Consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford the high risk of losing your money.