A week of increases in risky assets and decreases in the USD is behind us. What about grain?

The entire last week brought a weakening of the US dollar, increases in stock indices and a drop in US bond yields. The key event was the release of consumer inflation in the US, which surprised the markets positively by falling more than expected. Friday's report from the University of Michigan brought a high value, which meant that the chance of a September rate hike by the Fed increased, although the market still gives it less than 20 percent chance.

The Fed will have to do more

Last Friday's main topic was the strong rebound in US Treasury yields after rising US consumer confidence. Annual inflation expectations from the University of Michigan consumer survey were higher than expected. It made it stronger chance of a 25 bps rate hike next week and raised concerns that FED will have to do even more in the future. Overall, last week was positive for risky assets. Stocks gained, US bond yields fell and the dollar fell to its lowest level in 15 months.

The results season is in full swing

Wall Street earnings season has begun. Last Friday, three major US banks posted better-than-expected financial results (JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo).

JPMorgan Chase Revenue rose to a record high in the second quarter, thanks to interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the acquisition of First Republic Bank. The company's revenue of $41,3 billion beat analysts' expectations. Wells Fargo posted higher net interest income than market consensus. The bank raised its forecasts for the whole year. The shares of the first bank gained over 2,5 percent, but ended the day with a result of 0,6 percent. positive. The "securities" of the second institution, after strong increases at the opening, finally lost 0,34 percent.

United Health shares rose more than 7 percent. after the insurance giant recorded better-than-expected profits and revenues. The company earned $6,14 per share on revenue of $92,9 billion. Analysts polled by Refinitiv had expected earnings of $5,99 per share on revenue of $91 billion. UnitedHealth also raised the lower bound of its full-year profit projections.

Tomorrow, reports from institutions such as Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

The future of the agreement is unclear

Now let's move on to commodity markets. A UN-backed deal that allowed Ukraine to export grain and other foodstuffs during Russia's ongoing invasion expires today. Known as the Black Sea Initiative, the agreement reached last July allowed international shipments of corn, wheat, barley and other foodstuffs from three designated ports in Ukraine, which has been dubbed the "breadbasket of Europe". Now the future of the deal is unclear.

Russian President Vladimir Putin says part of the deal that would have facilitated similar exports from his country has not been met. According to the Kremlin, Putin said in a phone call with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa on Saturday that Russia still faces obstacles to exporting food and fertilizer, contrary to commitments in the deal to remove such barriers. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who helped broker the deal, said on Friday, that he believes Putin will renew the deal. According to the information provided to journalists, Erdogan spoke to Moscow by phone and allegedly he and Putin are "on the same side" when it comes to renewing the contract.

Wheat on CBOT on Friday it was up 3,4 percent. This is the third consecutive day of profits. Currently, the bushel is valued at around 670 cents.

Source: Łukasz Zembik, OANDA TMS Brokers