Is it a recession already? What will the week bring?

The global pandemic, which most of us have already partially forgotten, still affects the economies of many countries. It is no different in the case of China, which, after the extended period of pandemic restrictions, is disappointing with its economic activity. No less fears arose on the Vistula River when the Central Statistical Office data showed a quarterly decline in GDP by 3,7%.

Is this a recession already?

The Chinese authorities have maintained a "zero Covid" policy for an unusually long time, which in the second half of last year began to weigh heavily on the local economy. Great hopes were associated with its reopening, which resulted in a huge influx of capital towards the Middle Kingdom. And although the end of 2022 was associated with a clear rebound of the Chinese stock exchange, the last few months have emphasized the weakness of the local market.

There was a serious crisis in China already two years ago, when Evergrande bankruptcy – the largest Chinese developer – seemed inevitable. The bankruptcy of the giant would certainly have a domino effect, so Beijing decided to "dismantle" the company without stimulating the domestic real estate market. This decision, however, revealed a complicated web of connections, of which Evergrande was only a part. As a result, almost two years after the disclosure of the developer's problems, one of the top Chinese funds, which is responsible for at least 10% of all loans in the Middle Kingdom, suspended the payment of deposits.

In Poland, the latest quarterly data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) showed a decline in GDP growth by 3,7%. The data turned out to be quite a surprise, as only a quarter earlier Poland was one of the European leaders in economic growth. Is there really anything to be afraid of and is Poland entering a recession?

In today's webinar:

• Will China Avoid the Crisis?
• Is the Polish economy in recession?
• What do macroeconomic data tell us?

About the host

Dr Przemysław Kwiecień - Chief economist X-Trade Brokers. Doctor of Economics at the University of Warsaw, graduate of the University of Warsaw and London Metropolitan University (MSc). Holder of the prestigious CFA certificate. He has been working for XTB since 2007, previously he gained experience as an advisor to the Minister of Finance, Mirosław Gronicki, and an economist at Bank Millennium. At XTB, he manages the Analysis Department.

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