Holy Week with important events from the USA. Will Powell and PCE inflation sustain good sentiment?

This week in the United States will focus on price data PCE (Friday), as well as reports on personal income and expenses and speeches by several representatives Fed, including Chairman Powell (Friday), which is likely to attract significant investor attention.

Other key data include orders for durable goods, the final GDP growth reading for the fourth quarter and the CB consumer confidence index. Internationally, attention will focus on flash inflation readings for March from Spain, France, Italy and Poland, as well as interest rate decisions from Sweden and South Africa.

In Germany, market watchers will be waiting for updates on GFK consumer confidence, retail sales and the unemployment rate.

It's going to be a busy week in Japan with a BoJ summary, unemployment rate, industrial production, retail sales and home construction starts. Canada will release GDP growth estimates for February.

Statements of Fed and PCE representatives in the spotlight

In the United States, everyone will be paying attention to comments from Federal Reserve officials for further clarification on the central bank's future monetary policy moves, with particular anticipation of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks scheduled for Friday. Additionally, key data that investors will follow include PCE price indexes, personal income and expenses, and durable goods orders. Economists predict PCE prices will rise by 0,4% in February, a slight increase from the 0,3% recorded in January, with core prices expected to rise at a more moderate pace of 0,3%.

Consumer spending and incomes are also expected to increase by 0,4%. Additionally, durable goods orders are expected to rebound 1,3% in February after the steepest decline since April 2020. Investors will also be closely watching the final fourth-quarter GDP estimate (Thursday), corporate earnings and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

Key regional economic indicators (Chicago PMI, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index) and housing market data (new and expected home sales, Case-Shiller home prices) will also be in focus.

Key data from Europe and potential impact on the euro exchange rate

In Europe, it will be a light week for economic data due to the Easter break, with all major stock exchanges closed on Good Friday and Easter Monday.

Still, investors will keep an eye on preliminary March inflation data for Spain, France and Italy. Core inflation is expected to accelerate in Italy and Spain but slow in France.

Other data releases include economic sentiment and the final Eurozone consumer confidence data, the Consumer Confidence Index GfK, retail sales and unemployment rates for Germany, final GDP growth estimates for Spain, consumer confidence for France, business and consumer confidence for Italy, and monetary policy decisions for Hungary and Sweden.

The Hungarian National Bank is expected to cut borrowing costs by a further 75 basis points, while the Riksbank is unlikely to make any changes at this meeting.

In the UK, final GDP growth figures for the fourth quarter, business investment and the balance of payments will be of primary importance.